Conference Talk: What Will Oregon and the Pac-12 Do?

Million dollar question.

And it’s pretty clear, for Oregon’s sake, this might be the biggest move in the last 20 years for this program’s future.

It doesn’t matter who Oregon hires as head coach or AD or which 5-Star recruit they sign, this is an absolute game-changer for this program. For football, basketball, golf, track and field.

Before I get started, just a few things to note.

Again, I don’t pretend to be an insider here. I’m really not. Folks inside the HDC are just as much in the dark as we all are.

Secondly, I don’t feel like we are any closer to the outcome than we were on Thursday of last week. Feels like everyone has a “source” now and really all everyone is spouting as ‘rumors’ are just plausible scenarios.

Lastly, and most of all, FOLLOW THE MONEY. This is not about football, athletes or schools. This is 100-percent, and I mean the FULL 100, driven by Fox, ESPN, etc. and the strive for that almighty dollar.

Which ultimately means, Oregon’s fate rests solely in its ability to ‘sell’ the program as a revenue generator. Which remains the biggest obstacle because quite frankly, Oregon’s viewership has been hindered by the below average media deals Larry Scott struck years ago.

But I digress.

From my Tuesday morning reading, along with the weekend, here is what I can gather.

The Pac-12 alone is in trouble. Any potential merger with the Big-12 that could take place, likely results in a conference name that resembles the Big-12, not the Pac-12.

I do think most are very fond of the work George Kliavkoff in this unprecedented times. It would appear he is doing all he can to save the Pac while encouraging schools to look out for themselves as well. Of course he’d like to keep all of his member schools but I think this approach will serve him best in the end if he can find a solution.

The Pac-12’s current media deal remains its biggest obstacle.

IMO, and this is simply an opinion, the only way the Pac-12 can survive and Oregon should consider remaining, is if they can get the Big-12 and ACC involved. A triple merger of sorts if you will. There’s some good properties in the Big-12 still, Oklahoma State and Baylor for example. The ACC has Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, Clemson to bring to the table. At the very least.

If you want to compete with the updated Big-Ten and SEC, this is your ONLY option. Adding Boise State or San Diego State or whoever to your conference adds no value. (Strength) A Big-12 merger alone with just the Pac-10 would be a tier down still.

None of this will even remotely matter if Fox or ESPN doesn’t think it would pencil out. Or they could say no thanks anyways and simply roll the dice on the two super conferences and hope this third dies a slow, painful death.

Oregon needs to get into the B1G.

They really do. That’s the safest play here, again IMO.

It doesn’t appear the SEC is ready to make this move. And unless you are merging the three conferences I outlined above, you are relegated to a tier 2 conference. (If you will) You do not want to be here. (Also a big if)

It would appear Notre Dame remains the key to this move. Whether they join or not is the biggest question. The clock is ticking and it sounds like they know, their ability to cash in the most, is making the move now. The longer they wait, the less leverage they will have.

But I’m guessing the biggest hold up is the non-football sports deal with the ACC. However most are suggesting the move to the Big Ten would still net them more than staying in their current situation. Even if they had to pay the ACC for the move.

I still believe if Notre Dame makes this move, Oregon is next. If they don’t, I’m not sure the B1G wants two Pac-12 schools. I don’t think it pencils out. And again, this is about money. Not what fans want.

The Big-12 talks are the back-up plans.

At least for Oregon IMO. I don’t think Rob Mullens, Michael Schill or let’s be real, Phil Knight, are dumb. They aren’t going to go all in on the B1G basket and not at least have a contingency plan or two.

There is a chance you don’t get an invite to the B1G. And that is an alarming thought.

We all know the Pac-10 will not survive without the L.A. schools. Not because they win, just from a viewership and revenue standpoint. Again, you have little to no value to offer any of the big networks. You need more.

The Big-12 is in the exact same boat. Sure they have some nice markets, but minus Oklahoma and Texas they are a full tier below the two super-conferences too.

Those two conferences will die a slow death apart. They know that.

Is there an ACC wild card?

I mean, this now becomes the wild card in all of this. Is the ACC going to sit idle or make a move?

Two things to consider. Most of those top schools (Miami/Clemson/FSU/NC) would probably like to get into the B1G or SEC. That would be the obvious first choice I’m sure.

But if they can’t do that, they might be in a similar boat as the Pac and Big-12. Start dying a slow and painful death.

I think a three-way merger with the ACC, Pac and B12G is possible. I think it remains the most unlikely at this point. But if everyone gets left out, maybe that increases their urgency to put something together.

I think if you did, you’d have a product networks would be interested in. Whether it’s FOX or ESPN or possibly someone else.

I also think it keeps you in the game as a tier 1 conference.

My best guess today.

Notre Dame’s decision is the first shoe to fall. They move to the B1G, Oregon is right behind them. And I would expect we know this outcome within a week. (It’s just a guesstimate)

They don’t, I expect we’ll see a merger of some sort in the coming weeks after that. It won’t be quick. And it will take even longer if the ACC becomes a player in the discussions.

If Notre Dame doesn’t join and the ACC isn’t interested in any move, we could probably see the Big-12 and Pac-12 throw something together fairly quickly with Oregon involved. I won’t pretend I love this, but it’s better than being stuck in the Pac-10.