Early Look: Oregon vs Purdue

Coming off of what will undoubtedly be a highly emotional game against Ohio State, Oregon Football will take on the Purdue Boilermakers in what has been a trap game for several Big Ten Conference teams historically.

While Purdue isn’t necessarily a powerhouse program by conventional standards, fans been given plenty of reason to subscribe to the ‘any given Saturday’ mantra.

This is a classic example of a game that shouldn’t be particularly competitive from a roster standpoint but could be due to a variety of external factors.

Let’s talk about it.

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Focus:

The first potential challenging aspect of this game is, as mentioned, its placement on the schedule.

It’s no secret that there can be an emotional letdown for highly-ranked teams the week after a big matchup at both the college level and professionally.

This is probably the biggest risk factor the Ducks will face against the Boilermakers this fall.

Particularly if Oregon were to beat the Buckeyes on Oct. 12, it would be easy to gloss over the ensuing matchup and bask in the glory of what would be a huge win.

Going on the road to play Purdue lends itself perfectly to this type of mental trap, in addition to injuries and wear and tear that can develop in a game against a team as physical and talented as Ohio State.

On the injury front it’s worth noting this will be a Friday game so a short week for Oregon could absolutely be a factor following an intense game the week prior.

Oregon would be remiss to overlook what a mid-October road game thousands of miles from Eugene could mean from a focus standpoint.

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Uncharted waters:

The next potential hang-up point is the lack of familiarity between these teams.

As with several games on Oregon’s schedule, this will be the first matchup between these two in a great deal of time.

The last time the Ducks played Purdue was in 2009 where Oregon survived a 32-26 nail-biter in Chip Kelly‘s inaugural season in Eugene.

This lack of familiarity can lead to preparation problems, although less so than in the past.

While teams have any number of means to scout opponents, there is still the element of surprise for what a seldom-faced opponent can throw at you.

I don’t expect this to be a huge factor but it is something fans should keep an eye on Xs-and-Os-wise.

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History:

The final point of contention I’ll highlight here is Purdue’s history of snaring quality opponents.

Most recent among these was a gritty 20-10 victory in 2022 over then 21st-ranked Minnesota that halted much of the Golden Gophers’ momentum that season.

The same year they also knocked off 21st-ranked Illinois on the road and, familiarly, stopped a rising team in its tracks.

The most famous recent example came in 2019 with a 49-20 drubbing of then-No. 2 Ohio State.

This game sent shockwaves across college football and was a hostile reminder to top teams that they are vulnerable every single week.

Granted, these ranked wins all came under prior coaching regimes that are no longer in place at Purdue but at an institutional level the Boilermakers are no strangers to hanging the pelts of elite opponents.

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Will any of this matter?:

With all of this being said, I’m not especially concerned for the Ducks in this matchup.

Purdue is not the team this year that they were for some of the listed upsets and Dan Lanning‘s Oregon squad has yet to lose a game due to any of the listed conditions that will surround this matchup.

I think the Ducks will have an immediately obvious athletic advantage and run away with this game fairly early.

If Oregon beats Ohio State the week before they will have motivation to maintain their momentum and place in the rankings.

Conversely, a loss to the Buckeyes would knock the Ducks down a peg and force them to be hyper-focused on every single matchup the rest of the way.

Look for quarterback Dillon Gabriel to put up stellar numbers in a runaway win.

Prediction: Oregon wins 52-10