Five Keys to Victory for Oregon vs Ohio State

The Oregon Ducks travel to Pasadena, CA to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes for a second time and the stakes could hardly be higher. Today I’ll run through five components of the game, as well as statistical goals that will be important if Oregon hopes to get its second win against a vaunted opponent.

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Corral one of Ohio State’s elite wide receivers

Keeping both Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka firmly in check is a tall order but if the Ducks are able to keep them from both having big performances, things should be much more manageable for this defense. It’s worth noting Carnell Tate and tight end Gee Scott Jr. are both impressive threats in their own rights but Oregon should be happy with either of them having good days if it means Smith or Egbuka don’t detonate.

Numerically: One of Egbuka or Smith under 50 yards receiving

Capitalize on the Buckeyes’ weakened offensive line

Ohio State has lost two of its starting offensive linemen to season-ending injuries, most notably center Seth McLaughlin. The Ducks had a difficult time getting pressure on quarterback Will Howard in these teams’ first matchup and if that holds true the second time around, it’ll be tough to accomplish my first key to victory.

Pass rush has been one of Oregon’s strong suits defensively this year and it needs to show up in a spot where the Buckeyes’ offensive front is as downtrodden as it’s been all year.

Numerically: Three sacks or 10+ pressures on Howard

Share the wealth in the passing game

It’s no secret Oregon has a variety of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and I think they’ll need to utilize all of their best options to take down Ohio State. In the first game between these two, receivers Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson plus tight end Terrance Ferguson combined for 26 targets, good for 76% of quarterback Dillon Gabriel‘s passes.

I don’t necessarily think this will be the right approach in the rematch as the Buckeyes will almost certainly cue heavily on those three. Getting tight end Kenyon Sadiq as well as receiver Traeshon Holden plus Jordan James and Noah Whittington involved in the passing attack would go a long way towards keeping Stewart and Johnson open.

Numerically: Five players with four or more targets

Veteran leadership shows up

This is an Oregon team laden with experienced players across the roster. In these ultra high-pressure situations, they’ll likely need to be the ones who help keep the team composed and operating at its peak.

I expect this team’s seniors to make a big impact on the team mentally as well as on the field through communication and playing at a high level themselves. If the Ducks get off games from more than a couple of these guys, it likely spells trouble.

This one is hard to capture numerically but you’ll be able to tell from watching the game if it’s playing out as intended.

Elite coaching performance

Going into the first contest between these teams, most would’ve told you Ohio State had the deeper and overall better coaching staff than Oregon but this didn’t play out as expected. The Ducks’ coordinators and position coaches rose to the occasion and had the team dialed mentally and sound strategically.

If coordinators Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles are able to flex their wealth of big-game experience against Oregon’s younger staff, it will be hard for the Ducks to keep up. Color me optimistic that Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi are up to the challenge for the second time.

Numerically: 2/3 or better red zone touchdown percentage, penalty yards advantage, third and fourth down conversion advantage

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