Game Preview: Oregon vs Boise State

I don’t know whether to call this a big game, a trap game, or a blowout spot.

It should be the third option but I think Oregon fans have had their expectations lowered a bit following last week’s performance.

Most fans rightly associate Boise State’s heyday with the Chris Petersen coaching era from 2006-2013 when the Broncos ripped off seven straight double digit-win seasons, but it would be a mistake to say they’re no longer dangerous.

Today I’ll give a preview for Oregon’s matchup with Boise State and lend some insight into what the game might look like.

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Oregon Passing vs Boise State Secondary:

This should, theoretically, be a game in which the Ducks don’t need to do a ton of passing.

Much has been made of Dillon Gabriel‘s 49 attempts against Idaho, but I expect this to be something of a high-water mark for the year. I think the Ducks will remain highly efficient this weekend and probably end with Gabriel closer to 35 to 40 throws.

It may be the case that Oregon is forced to be a little pass-heavier this season than last, but I don’t expect them to push 50 attempts on a weekly basis. I’m predicting another good outing for Gabriel and the Oregon receiving corps with at least one Duck breaking the 100-yard mark after none did a week ago.

Oregon Rushing vs Boise State Defensive Front:

I think this is at least the second-most interesting matchup in this game.

Oregon very publicly struggled to run the ball against Idaho and the coaching staff has made it a point to remind players of this throughout the week. It’s probably safe to say the Ducks’ offensive line won’t play quite to the level it did last year, but that doesn’t mean it can’t still be a strength.

We know Oregon has the talent in the running back room to run the ball extremely efficiently and I think we’ll see more of a balanced approach against Boise State than a week ago. I wouldn’t necessarily predict any individual running back to clear 100 yards, but a solid rotation of efficient runners is a reasonable expectation for this game.

Boise State Passing vs Oregon Secondary:

Although relatively efficient, Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen wasn’t dominant against Georgia Southern a week ago, passing for 280 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Given the script of that game (56-45 final score), I think this may end up being close to Madsen’s highest output of the year.

This won’t be an easy spot for the Broncos to pass effectively as Oregon has a massive talent advantage in the secondary compared to Boise State’s receiving corps. Oregon’s pass rush should also have another good showing after recording four sacks against Idaho last week, making it even tougher sledding for Madsen.

Additionally, the Ducks’ secondary looked to be one of the best units on the team a week ago. I think Madsen will struggle to move the ball through the air and Oregon’s defense will put up another impressive performance defending the pass.

Boise State Rushing vs Oregon Defensive Front:

If Oregon’s rushing attack was (at least) the second-most interesting facet of the game, consider this the first.

Most fans are aware of Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty‘s dominance a week ago and historically. He’s legitimately one of the elite backs in college football and a nightmare to contain for any team.

If he played for a premier program, I think there’s a case to be made that he’d be in the Heisman Trophy conversation this year. Unfortunately, Jeanty has to run behind the offensive line he has and I think this will be much more of a struggle for them this week than it was against Georgia Southern.

The Ducks’ defensive front played a good game against Idaho and I don’t expect a lot to change. This doesn’t mean they’ll completely lock Jeanty up, but his 267-yard, six-touchdown performance against Georgia Southern doesn’t figure to be particularly replicable.

I don’t doubt that he’ll break a lot of good runs and likely push for 100 yards, but I would be surprised if he runs truly wild against Oregon’s defense.

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In short, this should be a bounce-back spot for the Ducks against a quality but not overwhelming opponent.

While Jeanty will do his thing and it’s possible Oregon’s offensive line struggles again, I don’t expect this matchup to be as down-to-the-wire as the one against Idaho.

I’m taking the Ducks to win and cover against Boise State.