Is There Still a Path to the Playoffs for Oregon?
Via Archie Rohden
After Oregon’s heartbreaking loss against Washington on the road last weekend, a lot of fans doubt the Ducks’ College Football Playoff chances.
In the midst of one of the most tightly contested top-4 races in college football history, Oregon still has a very good chance of making the cut – so long as the Ducks can win out.
Check out these shocking, yet very plausible, end-of-season record productions for some of the nation’s best teams:
• 13-0 Georgia (SEC champ)
• 13-0 Michigan (B1G champ)
• 11-1 OSU (loss to Michigan)
• 10-2 PSU (losses to UM, OSU)
• 12-1 Texas (B12 champ)
• 12-1 Oklahoma (loss to Texas)
• 12-1 Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
• 12-1 Washington (split with UO)
• 12-1 UNC (ACC champ, loss to Clemson)
• 12-1 FSU (loss to UNC)
If all this were to happen, I still fancy Oregon’s chances based strictly on strength of schedule.
In the Pac-12’s final season, Oregon will have played six teams that either are ranked in the top 20 or were once ranked within the top 10. That’s more than every SEC and Big Ten team on this list.
A team like Florida State has only played one currently ranked team all year. And the Seminoles will likely face only one more ranked team (Duke) until the ACC championship game.
Oregon’s strength of schedule has surpassed all preseason expectations for the Pac-12. Plus, if it can win out, that in itself would be a statement to the committee.
So, who would be the top 4 in this scenario? If I had to guess:
1. Georgia (obviously)
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Oregon
Oregon would get the edge over Ohio State because of strength of schedule and the Buckeyes losing (perhaps badly, and for the third straight year) against Michigan. They also struggled against teams that they shouldn’t have.
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In addition, the Buckeyes’ quarterback, Kyle McCord, has looked shaky at times this year.
Should Oregon dominate in the games in which they are favored, such as this weekend’s matchup against Wazzu, the Ducks would still need wins over fellow contenders Oregon State, Utah and USC to stay in the hunt.
But if all those dominoes fall, Oregon should meet Washington in what would be a highly anticipated rematch in Las Vegas. Could the selection committee ignore a Pac-12 champion that has survived such a gantlet?
I like Oregon’s chances. The grit the Ducks showed in Lubbock and Seattle is a testament to this team’s resilience and pluck.
I believe that attribute could well carry the Ducks through the second half of the season and into the playoffs.
