Keys to victory: No. 8 Oregon at No. 13 Utah
On Saturday, Oregon takes on Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium in a matchup that will prove to have huge implications on both teams’ respective Pac-12 Championship and College Football Playoff hopes.
Utah is undefeated at home in its last 18 games, with its last loss at the hands of USC in 2020. If you take away that game and only look at their home games with fans in the stands, Utah has won 27 straight at home. The Utes have also sold out Rice-Eccles Stadium 80 games in a row, which will be no different for tomorrow’s game. Oregon won last year in a nail-biter at home in Eugene, so Utah will be out for revenge.
Despite the odds being stacked against Oregon playing Utah on the road, the Ducks enter the day as 6.5-point favorites for good reason.
Oregon still leads the nation in yards per game at 553 and is second in points scored per game, just trailing LSU. Quarterback Bo Nix is also the most experienced college football player — ever — and if anyone has the ability to shut out the Utah crowd, it’s Nix.
The Ducks offense has proven to be incredibly balanced so far this year as well, and that will bode well for them facing such an experienced and talented defense. Their ground game has been equally, if not more, potent than the passing game. Oregon is the only team in the top 10 nationally for average passing yards per game and average running yards per game.
That said, Oregon’s defense has also done its job exceptionally well this year. The defense has held its own against some stiff competition. Against Washington, the Ducks’ D did enough to win the game, but poor execution on crucial downs let Washington get back into the game. Against Washington State last weekend, they were without their best corner and arguably their most impactful player in Khyree Jackson. They still won handily, only allowing 16 points until Wazzu scored a garbage-time TD.
Utah has built a reputation of being a very well-coached and tough team to beat. The Utes are physical and their defense is stifling. They can get after the quarterback, and their defense as a whole is notoriously extremely difficult to play against. Utah is also excellent at running the ball. Last week, star running back/safety Sione Vaki and Ja’Quinden Jackson combined for 185 yards on the ground, and the Utes will look to continue that against Oregon.
With that being said, Oregon has the ability to dominate the game in the box against Utah’s porous offensive line in pass protection. The Ducks have a knack for sacking the quarterback, and that should be no different against Utah.
According to Pro Football Focus, Utah has the second-lowest pass-blocking grade — in the entire FBS. This, combined with Utah’s quarterback having very limited experience starting in high-pressure games, leads me to believe that Oregon will try to pressure Bryson Barnes as often as possible. If Oregon can stuff the run like it has been able to against teams, Utah’s offense could be stopped entirely. With Jackson returning from injury and Jestin Jacobs getting his second start for the Ducks, if they play their cards right, Utah could be unable to move the ball.
On the other hand, Oregon’s pass protection has been incredibly good. Nix, being the experienced player he is, won’t have any issue reading the blitz and adjusting accordingly. If Utah is forced to go to man to stop the run, Oregon has faith in its boundary receivers to create separation and get open, which could lead to big plays for the Ducks offense.
It feels like this is the Ducks’ year following the heartbreaking loss at the hands of UW. With a dominant performance against a Utah team who are seemingly unbeatable at home, Oregon will cement itself into the top-five conversation and get a much-needed momentum boost before the final stretch of the regular season.
Score prediction: Oregon 31, Utah 21
