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Oregon Among 17 With Playoff Potential via ESPN

On3 imageby:Justin Hopkins•08/01/23
Oregon Odds
© John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Amid all of the conference controversy frenzy, ESPN posted an article listing 17 teams with playoff chances. From the model Ohio State has the best odds, according to the ESPN college football power index.

While the FPI percentages generated below come from a formula derived by ESPN Analytics, the selection committee brings a human element to the process, so we factor that in to determine how well the percentages line up with what could happen in the room. We’ve also noted odds from Las Vegas courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. The teams are ranked in order of the best chance to reach the playoff, according to FPI (through July 31).

While the Ducks have odds, they aren’t particularly great. The model gives Oregon 4.9% chance to reach the playoffs. It also gives Oregon .2% chance at wining the national championship this season.

The 17 schools listed are: Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Michigan, USC, Clemson, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, Florida State, Tennessee, TCU and Wisconsin.

Here is ESPN’s Heather Dinich on the Oregon prediction.

Agree or disagree with FPI: Disagree. Insert Demi Moore’s “strenuously object” line from “A Few Good Men” here. How is Oregon on this list and not Washington?! They’re so similar and they should BOTH be ranked ahead of Oklahoma based on what they have returning from successful 2023 seasons.

Toughest test: Oct. 14 at Washington. This should be one of the more entertaining, impactful games of the season. Both programs are trending up just as USC and UCLA are preparing to head out.

What the committee will like: Statement road wins. Don’t sleep on the Week 2 trip to Texas Tech, which could be a sneaky good Big 12 contender. While it’s not exactly last year’s blockbuster opener against Georgia, this might wind up even more beneficial for the Ducks because a) it shouldn’t be another drubbing, and b) Texas Tech has potential to finish as a CFP top 25 team. A road win against the Red Raiders, plus wins at conference heavyweights Washington and Utah, would legitimize the Ducks as a contender if they’re undefeated heading into November.

What the committee won’t like: A forgettable finish. It wasn’t the 49-3 loss to eventual national champion Georgia that ultimately kept the Ducks out of the playoff last year. It was the 2-2 record in November, with a close home loss to Washington and a road loss to rival Oregon State.

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