Oregon MBB falls to No. 15 in latest AP Poll

After a week that saw the Ducks get obliterated Illinois at home, and a gritty win over Maryland, Oregon has fallen to No. 15. It’s an understandable slide for the Ducks after the 32 point loss to Illinois who shot lights out all game. Having the Maryland comeback to build off of is huge getting forward. Only one other Big Ten team is ranked above the Ducks however, and it’s the same team that beat the brakes off of Oregon a few days ago, Illinois. Michigan State is right behind the Ducks at No. 16, Purdue No. 20, UCLA No. 22, and Michigan No. 24. Nebraska, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Indiana are all receiving votes as well.

Net Rankings and Upcoming Schedule:

Let’s get into some of the advanced stats including some of the other ranking metrics. After Oregon’s win over Maryland, the Ducks have jumped up from 23rd in NET rankings, to 20th. Maryland, on the other end of the contest dropped from No. 18, to 23rd in the NET rankings. The game still qualifies as a Quad 1 win for Oregon, which will be big down the stretch. Oregon now is 5-2 in Quad 1 games this season with it’s wins over Oregon State, Texas A&M, San Diego State, Alabama, and now Maryland. Both of Oregon’s losses are Quad 1 losses as well, which is a good thing. Oregon’s losses came with a bank-in three to lose against UCLA, and getting routed by Illinois.

Oregon is still undefeated in games outside of the Quad 1 criteria, going a combined 8-0. The Duck’s upcoming schedule will be full of major quality wins, and potentially really bad losses. As things sit currently, Oregon’s next two games at Ohio State (1/9) and at Penn State (1/12) will be Quad 1 games. I believe Oregon is good enough to win both of these games, but Ohio State has been playing better recently. The Buckeyes are coming off of a loss to Michigan State and will play Minnesota today. Prior to that, they had beaten a ranked Kentucky and Indiana State.

Following those matchups, the Ducks will get another Quad 1 opportunity at home against Purdue (1/18), and then a Quad 3 game against Minnesota (1/25) at home. The team will have a few days off before heading to LA to take on UCLA (1/30) to cap off the month with another potential Quad 1 win.

Kenpom Rankings:

Oregon is ranked No. 27 in the Kenpom rankings currently, behind other Big Ten programs such as Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, UCLA, Maryland, and Wisconsin. Oregon’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks as the 21st best in the nation. This ranking still trails Big Ten foes Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois. The Ducks adjusted defensive efficiency ranks as the No. 47 defense however. This puts them behind UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Northwestern, and Ohio State. There is definitely some room for improvement on the defensive side and I believe a lot of that starts with effort.

Oregon’s tempo ranks as the No. 142nd fastest in the nation, behind Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers, Michigan, Indiana, Maryland, and Washington. This is a statistic that I’m not overly worried about, the Ducks don’t want to get out and run. According to Kenpom’s “Luck Rating” the Ducks are the 29th luckiest in the nation and luckiest in the Big Ten. Take that with a grain of salt.

Team Stats:

The Ducks certainly have a ton of room for growth and I want to start by looking at TJ Bamba. Bamba is in the middle of the worst shooting splits (besides FT), of his career. I do not expect him to finish with such poor splits (34.9/30.4/70.3), that being said I also didn’t expect his shooting percentages to ever get this low. Shelstad despite a big game against Maryland is still shooting poor splits of 41.1/32.3/84.4, which are all down from last year. Noticeably, Shelstad is receiving slightly less playing time, and as a result, his points, assists, and blocks per game are down.

That isn’t to say that Shelstad’s blocks every game were relied on, just pointing out the statistical differences. If I were a betting man (which I am not), then I would bet that Shelstad will return to form. I’m sure Oregon would love for him to have more than just 2.7 assists per game, but finding his groove first is more important.

The three point shooting as a whole must improve for Oregon to be a contender, and I’ve heard fans frustrations about this for a while. Bittle is shooting 26.3% from deep which is the worst of his career for a season he has played more than 10 minutes per game in. I’ve already mentioned Bamba and Shelstad, so I’ll leave that be for now. Brandon Angel has seen his 3-point percentage fall from 44.7% last year at Stanford, to 39.4% so far this season. That current percentage isn’t awful, but he’s been a worse shooter than advertised. Ra’Heim Moss who already wasn’t a terrific three point shooter, has seen his percentage fall all the way down to 10%.