Picking Week 10 Big Ten Games Against the Spread

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week 10 matchup.

Season Record ATS: 42-20

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Illinois +3 vs Minnesota

While the Golden Gophers played an excellent game last week en route to a 48-23 win over Maryland, I don’t think they’re quite on the same level as Illinois, who was ranked for a reason last week. Giving the Fighting Illini three points in a home game against what I consider to be a slightly lesser opponent is pretty generous in my eyes.

I have Illinois winning this game outright and covering by probably a touchdown.

Washington +2 vs USC

We generally like home underdogs in conference games and this is another textbook example. USC is coming off a smooth cover against Maryland while Washington fell to Indiana in what was a relatively competitive game. That combined with the fact that I simply don’t think USC is a significantly better team than the Huskies makes this game ripe for an upset.

There’s some concern in my mind that Washington doesn’t have the offense to keep up with a Trojans team that will inevitably score some points but regardless I’ll take the Huskies to cover and win outright.

Purdue -2 vs Northwestern

I hardly even want to make a pick here but I’ll take a Purdue team that I think is slightly better than Northwestern in a vacuum to cover two points at home. The Boilermakers come off a bye while the Wildcats are on a two-game slide that includes a 20-point home loss to Wisconsin and a 26-point undressing against Iowa.

I’ll venture to guess Purdue comes out hot here in what could be one of its last remaining winnable games of the 2024 season.

Penn State +3 vs Ohio State

This is the Super Bowl of the Big Ten slate this week as we get an uber-talented but so-far-underachieving Ohio State team going on the road to face unbeaten-but-doubted Penn State. Many have speculated on which coach is under more pressure but I think it’s the Buckeyes’ Ryan Day by a decent margin.

I think that allows the Nittany Lions to operate a bit more comfortably here and I have no doubt Beaver Stadium will be on fire for this one. While Ohio State is likely the better roster and team, I think coach James Franklin gets off the big game schneid and gets the win.

Michigan State +8 vs Indiana

While 90% of bets are on Indiana to cover the eight points (per DraftKings), I think this is an extremely dangerous spot for the Hoosiers. Michigan State failed to cover last week while Indiana did and now they must travel to East Lansing and lay eight points.

I’m not going as far as to call for an outright upset but I think Michigan State plays an inspired game and covers.

Nebraska -7 vs UCLA

I’ll side with the public here (94% of spread bets on Nebraska) after fading it in the Indiana game. There’s a huge difference in roster and coaching quality in this one and it seems like the Cornhuskers turned a proverbial corner last week, hanging close against Ohio State.

UCLA does have the advantage of coming off a bye but going to Lincoln to face a team that’s playing its best ball of the season is a tall order. Give me Nebraska to win this by double digits.

Wisconsin +2.5 @ Iowa

These teams feel relatively similar in their construction to me but the spot favors Wisconsin who didn’t cover last week while Iowa did, handily. I think the Badgers will surge a bit down the stretch of this season while I don’t sense the same potential from Iowa, despite its offense being noticeably better than in years past.

It’s also worth mentioning Iowa has a 12-turnover advantage over Wisconsin thus far which is subject to a solid degree of randomness. If Wisconsin wins the turnover battle here or even just doesn’t lose it, I think they win outright.

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