Picking Week Eight Big Ten Games Against the Spread

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week eight matchup.

Season Record ATS: 34-15

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Maryland +7 vs USC

Maybe I’m missing something here but I don’t see how Maryland could possibly be getting a full touchdown in a home game against a 3-3 team. The Terrapins got annihilated last week by lowly Northwestern and should have all the motivation they need to beat a struggling team coming off an overtime game, now traveling about as far as any college team will travel for a game this year.

I feel fairly confident picking Maryland to win this game outright but I’ll certainly take the seven points. This is my lock of the week.

Indiana -6.5 vs Nebraska

This is a much tighter one than the Maryland game but not having to lay a full touchdown makes a big difference. Both teams are rested off a bye and while Indiana hasn’t exactly played a murderer’s row of a schedule, they’ve produced at enough higher of a level than Nebraska to make me feel relatively good picking them to cover this at home.

Rutgers -5 vs UCLA

I’m still very low on this UCLA team and for that reason I’ll take the better home team only laying five. Rutgers was embarrassed last week and, similarly to Maryland, I think they’ll play a much sharper game this time around.

The Bruins have found ways to hang around in a lot of games this year but I don’t think they can handle the long road matchup against a solid Rutgers squad.

Northwestern +8 vs Wisconsin

This is a bit too big of a number for my liking if I’m a Wisconsin fan. Both teams are coming off blowout wins but I don’t think the Badgers are enough better to warrant over a touchdown spread on the road.

While I do think Wisconsin is a sneaky-dangerous team and I feel good about them winning outright, I’ll take the points in what I expect to be a relatively low-scoring matchup.

Illinois +4 vs Michigan

This one is a real toss-up for me and I predict it with the least confidence I have in any game this week. There’s a huge rest mismatch in this one as Michigan was on bye last week while Illinois survived a 50-49 overtime heater against Purdue.

That being said I think the Fighting Illini are a better team and I’ll take them getting over a field goal at home against a team that quite literally cannot pass.

Michigan State +6 vs Iowa

While I fully acknowledge Iowa being the better team than the Spartans, a lot of things point to a Michigan State cover and/or upset here. The first thing worth noting is that Sparty is the far better-rested team having not had to play a game in a full 15 days.

Another is that Iowa easily covered against Washington last week, a spot ripe for the other team to flip the script. Lastly, Iowa is tied for 16th in the country in turnover differential (+6) while Michigan State is 119th (-6).

While there’s some skill involved in this, teams that rely heavily on turnover favorability tend to regress over time and vice versa. I feel good about this one.

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