Picking Week Four Big Ten Games Against the Spread
As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week four matchup.
Season Record ATS: 18-3
USC -5.5 @ Michigan
I think this game is going to look fairly similar to Michigan’s matchup against Texas two weeks ago, although proabably slightly less lopsided. USC is dynamic offensively and its defense should be good enough to corral a Wolverines attack that’s failed to get much of anything going this year.
I do think Texas is a better team than the Trojans but not by enough to justify the 13.5 point difference between that game’s outcome and this game’s spread.
Iowa -2.5 @ Minnesota
This game has a remarkably low 35-point total per Vegas and in those situations I’m generally inclined to take the home team getting points but I think Iowa is enough better of a team to make betting the favorite worthwhile here. Its offense has, predictably, not been awesome but I think there’s a reasonable chance Minnesota doesn’t find the endzone this game.
Given all of that, I’m comfortable laying the 2.5 points on what is almost certainly the better roster.
Oregon State -5.5 vs Purdue
The Beavers should be playing with their hair on fire after what was an embarrassing performance against the Ducks last weekend. Purdue itself suffered a 66-7 loss to Notre Dame a week ago but given what we know about the Fighting Irish this year, that loss looks a lot worse than the Beavers’ to Oregon.
I think home field will be a big factor and Oregon State doesn’t even need to win by a full touchdown to cover this spread.
Illinois +8 @ Nebraska
While Nebraska is a much improved team from last year, I don’t think they’ve reached peak form yet. I’m tempted not to read into its 28-10 manhandling of Colorado as much as most have and Illinois has been a surprisingly good team this year.
Eight points is a big spread for teams I think are fairly comparable and given this game’s low 43-point total, I’ll take Illinois getting over a touchdown.
Indiana -28.5 vs Charlotte
I don’t think people have fully internalized the threat Indiana poses to even good teams on a weekly basis, and they don’t play one this week. Coach Curt Cignetti has quickly turned around a program that was lost for a couple of years following the departure of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and now-Alabama head man Kalen DeBoer.
Charlotte has lost badly to both FBS opponents they’ve played this year and squeaked by FCS Gardner-Webb a week ago. Now they travel to Indiana in a game I expect to be over early.
Ohio State -40 vs Marshall
Games where both teams are coming off a bye can be tricky but Ohio State is playing an entirely different sport than Marshall. The Buckeyes could score pretty much as much as they want this game and Marshall didn’t show a lot of life in a 31-14 loss against Virginia Tech two weeks ago, a team most don’t consider to be a powerhouse.
I’m a little nervous about laying 40 points as Ohio State could just as easily take its foot off the gas early but even its backups are likely better than Marshall’s starters. I just don’t see any way this game is even somewhat competitive.
Kent State +49 @ Penn State
Going the opposite direction of my Ohio State pick, I’ll take the gamble that Kent State can stay within essentially 50 points of the Nittany Lions. I am nervous about how sheerly bad the Golden Flashes have been this year (0-3 including a loss to FCS St. Francis two weeks ago) but I think they’ll play with a lot of motivation following a 71-0 defeat at the hands of Tennessee on Saturday.
Penn State played a tepid game against Bowling Green prior to its week three bye and I’m not convinced its offensive issues have been fully addressed. I’ll cautiously take Kent State to not get skunked again.
Rutgers +3.5 @ Virginia Tech
Rutgers might be the better team outright than the Hokies this year. Although 3.5 points is absolutely a trap line given that it’s easy to say Rutgers only needs to keep it within a field goal to cover, I tend to think they win this game straight up.
Coach Brent Pry’s rebuild of Virginia Tech is going well but I think the Scarlet Knights have a little more momentum heading into this one.
LSU -24 vs UCLA
This really just comes down to UCLA being terrible. I have a hard time believing a team that just lost a 42-13 home game to Indiana can play a competitive game against a better team in Death Valley.
It doesn’t seem like coach DeShaun Foster has a lot of idea what he’s doing at UCLA and I think that will rear its ugly head again this weekend.
Washington -10.5 vs Northwestern
This one comes down to a team that I think is playing with everything it has taking on an outfit that has somewhat overachieved so far this year. I said before the season that I expect Washington to get better as the season progresses and what better time for that to start than a home game against a bad team following a humiliating loss to Washington State?
With three games of coach Jedd Fisch’s system under their belts, the Huskies should be settling into their groove for the year and I think that shows up this week. It’s worth noting that 95% of spread bets for this game are on Washington (per DraftKings) so I’m surprised this margin hasn’t gotten bigger over the course of the week.
Get it while you can.
Michigan State +7 @ Boston College
These teams are both better than most people expected coming into the year but I don’t think Boston College’s home field makes a huge difference here. MSU coach Jonathan Smith’s teams are known to play with composure and discipline and I think the two rosters are relatively evenly matched so I’ll take the points in what should be a gritty, close game.
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