Picking Week Nine Big Ten Games Against the Spread
As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week nine matchup.
Season Record ATS: 38-17
Rutgers +14 @ USC
While Rutgers’ momentum has slowed since its 4-0 start, I still think this team is of a similar caliber to USC for broad strokes purposes. 14 points is too many for a game where home field doesn’t figure to be a huge factor outside of travel implications.
Minnesota -5.5 vs Maryland
This is a mostly a spot pick with Maryland coming off a close, big win over USC last weekend while Minnesota is fresh off a bye. I don’t love the number in a vacuum but with the specific circumstances of this game I feel much more comfortable with it.
Ohio State -25.5 vs Nebraska
While this is a huge number, Ohio State is beginning its redemption tour following its loss to Oregon two weeks ago. The Buckeyes also got a bye in that time while Nebraska has looked worse by the week.
This feels like one where Ohio State will be looking for style points and if Nebraska is the team we saw a week ago, this one will get out of hand.
Indiana -5.5 vs Washington
I’m really surprised this line isn’t bigger given the disparity in the quality of these teams. I do understand the trend implications here with Indiana coming off a near-flawless performance over a big-name Nebraska team while Washington’s last two weeks have been a bye and a 40-16 loss at the hands of Iowa, but trends are great at predicting the past.
I think the Hoosiers are simply a much better team than Washington and I expect their offense to be able to cover this margin fairly easily.
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Northwestern +14.5 @ Iowa
I really just don’t think Iowa should be laying 14.5 against any Big Ten team. It’s not that I have an abundance of faith in Northwestern as a team but this is too many points for an Iowa squad that remains one of the worst offenses in the conference.
Michigan -4 vs Michigan State
This in-state rivalry game pits two teams with somewhat opposite trajectories against each other, but I’m going against the grain and rolling with Michigan. After losing 21-7 at the hands of Illinois a week ago, I think Michigan will play its most inspired football of the Big Ten schedule thus far while the Spartans just handed Iowa a 12-point loss.
I actually think these teams are pretty evenly matched but the spot and the location of this one makes me think Michigan wins by 7-10 points.
Penn State -6.5 @ Wisconsin
I realistically probably wouldn’t be touching this as a bettor but I have enough faith in Penn State being a significantly better team than Wisconsin to justify the margin. The Nittany Lions are getting healthy after a bye while Wisconsin covered in an ugly game against Northwestern last week.
There are some concerning statistics about ranked teams playing low-spread road games against unranked teams but this feels like a bit of a now-or-never year for Penn State while Wisconsin is still on the development track to an extent.
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