Picking Week One Big Ten Games Against the Spread

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to.

Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week one matchup, excluding those who face FCS opponents.

To read my thoughts on Oregon’s game against FCS Idaho, check out ScoopDuck’s week one roundtable where our writers have compiled their predictions for the season opener.

USC +4 vs LSU:

This is a hard one to evaluate.

I said in ScoopDuck’s roundtable on other exciting week one matchups that I think LSU will win a fun, back-and-forth battle in Las Vegas to start the season 1-0.

With that said, there’s so much change for both of these programs from a season ago that I make that pick with relatively low confidence.

Give me LSU to win but USC to cover on Sunday.

Michigan State -13 vs Florida Atlantic:

Speaking of turnover from last year, Michigan State will look almost nothing like the team that went 4-8 in 2023.

New coach Jonathan Smith is known to build programs slowly and steadily so don’t expect a lot of fireworks for the Spartans early this year.

I’ll take Michigan State to win and cover, but barely.

Wisconsin -24 vs Western Michigan:

Wisconsin should be sneaky-good this season in year two of coach Luke Fickell‘s tenure in Madison.

The Badgers bring back most of their 2023 roster and add transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke from Miami who many feel was not represented at his best last year.

I think Wisconsin wins but doesn’t cover against a Western Michigan team that also enters year two of a new coaching staff.

Maryland -19.5 vs Connecticut:

Coach Mike Locksley has quietly done a good job with a Maryland program that was in the wilderness following the disastrous demise of coach D.J. Durkin.

I think Maryland will come out sharp to win and cover against a UConn team that hasn’t shown a lot of life lately.

Penn State -7.5 vs West Virginia:

This feels like a line that’s baiting you into betting West Virginia.

Instead I’ll make the less fun prediction and say that Penn State rolls the Mountaineers to open 2024.

I said just a couple of weeks ago that I expect Penn State to win 11 games and that likely doesn’t involve a loss in week one.

Penn State should be an obviously better outfit than West Virginia and win by two or more possessions.

Ohio State -48.5 vs Akron:

This is almost too big a spread to know what to do with.

It really just depends how long Ohio State wants to leave its starters on the field here and my guess is that it won’t be for long.

Ohio State will look the part of a national title contender in the first half but cruise the rest of the way.

Give me the Zips to narrowly cover a massive spread.

Indiana -22 vs Florida Intl:

As one of the FBS’ true bottom-feeders, I don’t expect FIU to put up much of a fight here.

Curt Cignetti‘s Indiana team added some high-level talent in the transfer portal this offseason and gets a favorable matchup to open the year.

I’ll take them to win and cover with relative ease.

Northwestern -3.5 vs Miami (OH):

The spread on this game being as close as it is is really a testament to how far Northwestern has fallen as a program.

It wasn’t long ago that the Wildcats were a consistent bowl team that was a tough matchup week in and week out.

Clearly that’s in the past.

Regardless, I’ll take them to cover a spread that I think is too small for a team that went 8-5 a season ago.

Nebraska -27.5 vs UTEP:

In a similar case to Iowa’s, I don’t expect Nebraska to pile points on its opponents this year.

UTEP went 3-9 last year and hasn’t gotten much done lately.

I’ll take Nebraska to win and squeak out a cover.

Michigan -21 vs Fresno State:

As scrappy as Fresno State always is, I expect this game to be completely lopsided in the trenches.

Even with uncertainty at quarterback, I think Michigan could hypothetically win this game without passing a single time.

If this were a road game for the Wolverines there would be some level of concern but I don’t think Fresno State poses any threat in the big house.

I think Michigan runs the ball at an elite clip and locks down Fresno State’s offense to win and cover.

UCLA -14 @ Hawai’i:

Way too big of a spread here.

While UCLA has a talent advantage over Hawai’i, it’s not by nearly as much as a 14-point margin would imply.

On top of this, Hawai’i has already played a game and had time to make adjustments.

Throw into this that UCLA is one of the few Big Ten teams playing a true road game this week, and this seems like it could be a dogfight.

I’m tempted to pick Hawai’i outright but give me UCLA to survive a nail-biter, not even sniffing a cover.

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