Picking Week Seven Big Ten Games Against the Spread
As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week seven matchup.
Season Record ATS: 32-13
Penn State -3.5 @ USC
Trap line. Vegas is screaming at you to take USC and the points with the Trojans only needing to stay within a field goal in a home game to cover.
I don’t think it happens. While Penn State is yet to play a truly serious opponent like this, it’s handled everyone it’s played thus far and USC seems to be getting worse by the week.
Minnesota -4 @ UCLA
When 98% of bets are on one side (as is the case for the Gophers in this one), it usually suggests a bad line. I have my concerns about an offense as undynamic as Minnesota’s scoring enough to win by five or more on the road, but UCLA is confidently one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and I think Minnesota’s defense will keep the Bruins from doing much of anything offensively.
Northwestern +10.5 @ Maryland
While Northwestern is confidently a basement-dweller in the conference, this is a lot of points for two teams that are playing equivalent defensive football. I certainly don’t think Northwestern wins here but I suspect it can keep the game within 10 points by slowing down Maryland’s offense at the margin.
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Iowa -3 vs Washington
This is a big spot for trends and with Washington coming off a great home win over the 2023 national champions a week ago and Iowa getting torched by Ohio State, I’ll take the sides to flip and Iowa to win a gritty one that doesn’t have a lot of points on the board.
Rutgers -1.5 vs Wisconsin
I don’t think this is enough points for a home team that’s better in a vacuum than its opponent, by a decent margin. Rutgers’ offense is about 10 spots better nationally in PPG than Wisconsin and the defenses differ by nearly a touchdown.
Add this to the game being played in Piscataway and Wisconsin covering handily last week and you get my lock of the week.
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