Picking Week Six Big Ten Games Against the Spread

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week six matchup.

Season Record ATS: 28-11

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Minnesota +9 vs USC

I can’t help but think Minnesota will be on a mission to prove itself after last week’s debacle against Michigan. The Golden Gophers played the Wolverines to the wire and could easily have won the game if not for a blown offsides call on their onside kick.

Minnesota now gets a USC team in the Twin Cities that recently lost star defensive tackle Bear Alexander for the year and was already suspect against the run. I’ll take USC to win here but I expect a razor close game where Minnesota largely controls the clock and the ball.

Purdue +12.5 @ Wisconsin

I really just don’t think Wisconsin should be laying 12.5 points against anyone in the Big Ten. While Purdue checks in at a meager 1-3 on the year, Wisconsin is only a game better and hasn’t beaten an opponent by more than 14 this year, including home matchups against Western Michigan and South Dakota.

I’ll remind fans that transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is out for the year for the Badgers and I don’t think they have the offense to cover this spread.

Penn State -28.5 vs UCLA

UCLA really just isn’t a good team. Quarterback Ethan Garbers was under constant pressure and appeared gimpy at times against the Ducks last week and this is not a good spot for the Bruins to have a banged-up quarterback in.

I think UCLA could realistically be shut out this weekend and even if they aren’t, I’m not especially afraid of this large spread.

Indiana -13.5 @ Northwestern

This is the third week in a row I’ve mentioned that Vegas doesn’t seem to have caught up to what Indiana has going on this year. On the flip side, Northwestern trots out one of the worst offenses in major college football, having scored 13 and five points against its FBS opponents so far.

I don’t see any way this game is close and I’m taking the Hoosiers to blow this spread out of the water.

Ohio State -18 vs Iowa

This is just a mismatch, plain and simple. Ohio State ranks fourth and first in the FBS in points scored per game and points allowed per game respectively while Iowa checks in at 53rd and 15th.

In some prior years, this matchup would at least be made interesting by Iowa being able to claim the better defense but that’s not the case here. I think the Buckeyes put this one away early in front of their home crowd.

Rutgers +7 @ Nebraska

I power rated the Scarlet Knights a spot ahead of Nebraska in the Big Ten earlier this week and while I do think Nebraska’s home field will ultimately propel them to a win, I think this should be closer than a seven point spread given what we’ve seen from these teams.

Give me Rutgers to fall in a nail-biter that’s decided by three or four points.

Washington -1.5 vs Michigan

This is another case where the favorite’s defense is its biggest advantage in the game. Washington has held opponents to an average of just 12.4 PPG and Michigan’s offense is no fireworks show.

I think the Wolverines are going to have a hard time getting anything going and lose this game something like 24-17.

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