Picking Week Two Big Ten Games Against the Spread

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week two matchup, excluding those who face FCS opponents.

Season Record Against the Spread (ATS): 9-2

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USC -28.5 vs Utah State:

Coming off an impressive 27-20 win over LSU a week ago, USC has a lot of momentum. It’s worth noting that that game was played on Sunday so the Trojans are on a slightly short week, but I don’t expect it to make a lot of difference in a home game against a lower-tier opponent.

I think USC will light up the scoreboard in a way they didn’t against the Tigers to win and cover.

Rutgers -23 vs Akron:

This will be the second consecutive Big Ten matchup for coach Joe Moorhead and Akron following their 52-6 loss at Ohio State in week one. Rutgers coach Greg Schiano is known to field physical football teams and I think this will start to wear on Akron, who is undoubtedly playing with mostly smaller and less physically talented athletes.

Rutgers doesn’t have the type of offense that will typically pile on points but its defense should be able to carry the load and get them a second-straight dominant win. I’ll take the Scarlet Knights to win and cover.

Bowling Green +34.5 @ Penn State:

Penn State looked outstanding a week ago in a tough road environment against West Virginia. Quarterback Drew Allar had a great performance and carried Penn State to a 22-point win over quality competition.

I expect this week’s game to look somewhat different and for the Nittany Lions to lean more on their elite backfield tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. This may end up leading to a slightly lower-scoring game and with that in mind I’m taking Penn State to win but not cover a big spread.

Texas -7 @ Michigan:

If Michigan had even slightly more idea what it’s going to do at quarterback, I’d probably take them to cover this spread. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, passing looks to be a severe weakness this season and this isn’t a good spot to have that problem in.

An early-season trip to Ann Arbor shouldn’t give Texas much concern for weather conditions, so I expect the Longhorns to do their thing offensively while posting a dominant defensive performance. I think Texas will win and cover, potentially by a lot.

Washington -25 vs Eastern Michigan:

I’m a believer in new Washington head coach Jedd Fisch, particularly as the season progresses. The Huskies looked sharp a week ago, winning 35-3 over FCS Weber State.

I don’t expect a ton to change in this matchup and with a game in Fisch’s system under its belt, I expect the Huskies to post a dominant win and cover.

Iowa State +3 @ Iowa:

Be advised of the 35-point projected total in this game. The spread-total combo suggests something like a 20-17 rock fight which is more or less how both of these teams like to play.

I think Iowa State will prove slightly more dynamic offensively with Rocco Becht at quarterback and cover the field goal spread.

Michigan State +9 @ Maryland:

I don’t think the Spartans stand much chance of winning this game outright, but nine points is a big spread for what should be essentially a wash talent-wise. I have faith that coach Jonathan Smith will adjust following a close win over FAU last week.

Aidan Chiles was erratic at quarterback but even one game of experience should make a big difference for a young player who clearly has the talent to be a high-level starter. I’m picking Maryland to win but I think the Spartans cover.

Illinois +4.5 vs Kansas:

Don’t look now but Illinois might be a real team. The Fighting Illini looked outstanding in a 45-0 FCS win last weekend and they now get more than a field goal in a home game against Kanas.

Kansas might be the more talented team from top to bottom but Illinois is a well put-together organization whose fans will be engaged and have reason to believe in their team for the first time in a while. I think Illinois covers and likely wins outright.

Nebraska -6.5 vs Colorado:

It was hard to be impressed by what Colorado did against North Dakota State in week one. The Buffaloes had to get every ounce of possible production out of their stars to survive that matchup by quite literally five yards.

Nebraska is the more sound roster and while I don’t think the Cornhuskers have the offensive firepower to blow this spread out of the water, the mismatch in the trenches and in depth should give them what they need to win by at least a touchdown and cover.

Ohio State -37 vs Western Michigan:

After narrowly missing out on covering a 48.5-point spread a week ago, I think this is the game Ohio State really blows the doors off its competition. While Western Michigan played Wisconsin tough last week, I think there’s a massive difference in quality of opponent for them this week against a team that likely feels it could’ve done more in its previous matchup.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio State shuts the Broncos out this weekend and I certainly have faith that they’ll score in excess of 37 points. Give me the Buckeyes to handily win and cover this large spread.

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