Resume check: Does Oregon still have an at-large path to the NCAA tournament?
With four regular-season games to go, Oregon’s NCAA tournament hopes hang in the balance.
The Ducks (17-10, 10-6) have been their own worst enemies for much of this season as they have frequently delivered wins against strong opponents, only to turn around and suffer a head-scratching loss soon after.
For Oregon, the highs this season have been incredible. But the Ducks’ lows may ultimately torpedo their hopes of nabbing an at-large tourney bid. Now, after a blowout loss at Arizona State, and an agonizingly close loss at Arizona over the weekend, they are running out of time.
As they begin an ultra-crucial week that could define their 2021-22 season, the Ducks are, by almost every ranking and metric, a team that is outside the tournament picture at this point.
Currently, the Ducks sit at No. 63 in the NCAA Net Rankings. In a tournament field of 68 — with 32 automatic bids going to conference champions — that isn’t good enough to get them in.
ESPN bracket analyst Joe Lunardi released his updated projections Tuesday and has Oregon listed in the penultimate spot of his “next four out” meaning the Ducks are, by his projections, trailing six other teams for the final at-large bid.
Andy Katz listed the Ducks as the first team out in his latest projection, just ahead of BYU, Virginia, and Florida. The Gators (50) and Cougars (55) both sit ahead of Oregon in the next rankings, and BYU owns a blowout loss over the Ducks from November.
The good news?
Oregon still has a chance to bolster its resume.
The Ducks are set to host UCLA on Thursday and USC on Saturday. According to the NET rankings, the Bruins are No. 14 in the nation, while the Trojans are No. 24.
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If Oregon were to, theoretically, come away with victories over both of the Los Angeles schools, those would both serve as ever-crucial Quad 1 victories.
For a refresher on how quadrant victories factor into each team’s NET ranking, here is an explainer from the NCAA.
Oregon’s record as of Tuesday against teams from each quadrant is:
- Quad 1: 2-4
- Quad 2: 4-3
- Quad 3: 3-3
- Quad 4: 7-0
In January, the Ducks captured road wins over USC and UCLA in a 48-hour span, when both teams were ranked inside the top five of the AP Poll. If they can orchestrate another pair of upset victories over this week, that might be enough to firmly entrench them inside the tournament field.
After that, Oregon will close out the season against Washington (No. 135 NET) and Washington State (No. 48 NET). A sweep against the Washington schools would add another Quad 1 and Quad 2 win for the Ducks. There’s no guarantee going 4-0 over the next two weeks would get them into the tournament field, but it would absolutely give them a chance.
So, while its chances appear bleak at the moment, Oregon still has a tremendous opportunity to save its season. It can either uncork a four-game winning streak to close out the regular season or, if all else fails, hope to get hot in Las Vegas and secure an automatic bid by winning the Pac-12 tournament.
But this is no room for error.
