Take Nebraska +7, Penn State -29 in Week 12

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week 12 matchup aside from Oregon’s, where my score prediction and thus spread pick can be found here.

Season Record ATS: 43-26

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Nebraska +7 @ USC

The season is hanging by a thread for USC who finds themselves fighting for bowl eligibility at 4-5 with three games to go. Nebraska’s been far from perfect but now fields the better quarterback and (in my opinion) coach with Dylan Raiola and Matt Rhule.

It’s hard to know how the Trojans will respond in their first game without quarterback Miller Moss, who was recently benched and subsequently announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. This is a high-variance game but I like Nebraska getting seven against reeling USC.

Washington -3.5 vs UCLA

While it’s probably time to put some respect on UCLA, I don’t think this is the game where it all comes together. Coach DeShaun Foster‘s team has been frisky of late but now travels to Seattle for what should be a bad-weather game against a better coach and quarterback in Jedd Fisch and Will Rogers.

The Huskies also have a meaningful talent advantage up and down the roster which further solidifies my confidence in this pick. 3.5 doesn’t seem too big a number to cover for Washington and I’ll take them by a touchdown.

Northwestern +28.5 vs Ohio State

I hate picking these massive spreads but there are a couple of factors that make me like Northwestern and the points. This game will be played at Wrigley Field as Northwestern builds a new stadium which I think makes for a funky road environment that could hamper Ohio State’s focus.

Additionally, the Buckeyes are now ranked second in the country and likely don’t want to put a lot on film ahead of next week’s matchup with undefeated No. 5 Indiana. While the Wildcats are the inferior roster in every way, I think covering 28.5 will be difficult for Ohio State in this spot.

Michigan State +2.5 @ Illinois

A lot of the wind has been taken out of Illinois’ sails following losses to Oregon and Minnesota in consecutive games while Michigan State remains in the mode of trying to find its identity in year one of the coach Jonathan Smith era. 2.5 points always strikes me as a line that baits bettors into taking the favored team thinking ‘all they need is a field goal’.

The Spartans don’t face a quarterback or coaching deficit in my eyes as Aidan Chiles and Smith match up well with coach Bret Bielema and Luke Altmeyer for Illinois and with that I’ll take Michigan State and the points.

Penn State -29 @ Purdue

The Nittany Lions find themselves in a dogfight for playoff contention and now face the worst team in the Big Ten. They’ll need to win emphatically down the stretch of the regular season if they hope to get in over the loser of Indiana vs Ohio State next weekend and I expect them to step on the gas against the Boilermakers.

I don’t love Penn State in spots where they need to cover large spreads given their more ball-control offense but I think we could see the script flipped on that style of game this week. Give me coach James Franklin and quarterback Drew Allar to come out sharp and dominate this game.

Rutgers +5.5 @ Maryland

I’ve picked Rutgers a lot this year and not always to great effect but I like this spot for them. Teams who played the Ducks the week before have not been awesome this year and I think the Scarlet Knights hold a coaching and quarterbacking advantage with Greg Schiano and Athan Kaliakmanis.

This combined with being a win away from bowl eligibility makes me feel positive about Rutgers getting 5.5 points against a team that’s not notably better than them.

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