Take Ohio State -10.5, Nebraska -1 in Week 13

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week 13 matchup complete with explanations and score predictions for each.

Season Record ATS: 47-28

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Michigan State -14 vs Purdue

Purdue is terrible. That’s really what this comes down to.

While conditions at Spartan Stadium will be less than ideal at 31 degrees, Michigan State is the better team in every metric and stands two wins away from bowl eligibility, adding all the motivation one could want to an already lopsided matchup.

Prediction: 28-10 Michigan State

Rutgers -2 vs Illinois

This Illinois team has cooled off since its 6-1 start, now sitting at 7-3 after running into Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Rutgers has been a steadily decent outfit for the duration of the season and is better than the Fighting Illini in offensive yards per game as well as rushing yardage with all other metrics being either close or tied.

I like the Scarlet Knights to get a quality win here and improve to 7-4

Prediction: 27-24 Rutgers

Ohio State -10.5 vs Indiana

While the Hoosiers have been a fun story this year and obviously vastly exceeded expectations, I think the buck stops here. Indiana doesn’t have a single win over a team that was ranked at game time or present, meaning they’ve feasted on an extremely soft schedule.

This game features a massive talent discrepancy as well as some questioning whether Indiana even needs to win to make the playoff. Lay the points.

Prediction: 38-20 Ohio State

Maryland +5 vs Iowa

The public likes Iowa here with 69% of bets being placed on the Hawkeyes but I think Maryland keeps it close. When you see two teams with such wildly different styles of gameplay, it makes for an interesting contest and I think the Terrapins’ massive passing edge will help them avoid a blowout.

I think Iowa wins here but give me the home team getting five points, especially when it’s fighting for a bowl berth.

Prediction: 24-21 Iowa

Northwestern +10.5 @ Michigan

I don’t know what to make of this one, strictly speaking, but I have my doubts that Michigan can cover 10.5 against a competent conference opponent. These teams rank extremely similarly in points per game, points per game allowed, total yardage, and Northwestern holds a season-long turnover advantage.

This is another one where I’m fairly confident the Wolverines win but I can’t get over how big this spread is.

Prediction: 24-17 Michigan

Minnesota +12 vs Penn State

I really can’t believe this spread is the size it is. I acknowledge the clear talent difference between these two but I have serious reservations about Penn State’s unexplosive offense being able to cover 12 points on the road in 35-degree weather.

Minnesota isn’t bad either! Coach P.J. Fleck’s squad stands at 6-4 but has lost just one game at home this year and historically gives good teams a lot of problems.

Prediction: 27-17 Penn State

Nebraska -1 vs Wisconsin

This line doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Nebraska is the better team in PPG allowed, passing yards, yards allowed, and holds a six-turnover advantage over Wisconsin on the year.

I’ve been vocal that buying into turnover differentials is a fool’s errand but this late in the year with a wide margin like this, it has to mean something. Wisconsin gave pieces of its soul in last week’s attempt to beat Oregon and I think this is a big letdown spot for them in Lincoln.

Prediction: 24-17 Nebraska

USC -4.5 @ UCLA

While the USC train has screeched to a halt in the last month or so, I think the Trojans have enough fight in them to get the job done here. New quarterback Jayden Maiava played well against a solid Nebraska team last week and seems to have galvanized the offense a bit.

This also isn’t a true road game for USC, traveling just 15 miles to play the Bruins. Give me the team with the talent and schematic advantage to win this one by roughly a touchdown.

Prediction: 31-23 USC

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