Take USC +7.5, Iowa -3 in Week 14

As Oregon Football joins a new conference for the first time since 1968, fans should keep a close eye on what the rest of the Big Ten Conference is up to. Today I’ll make picks for every Big Ten team‘s week 14 matchup, complete with explanations and score predictions for each.

Season Record ATS: 51-32

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Iowa -3 vs Nebraska

I think Nebraska’s going to have a really tough time moving the ball here. A low-scoring game-script (O/U 39.5) should favor the Hawkeyes who have made a living in this type of game for the last decade or more.

The Cornhuskers have had a nice season but may be flying a little high following a 19-point win over Wisconsin last week. Give me the home team with the better roster to cover a field goal here.

Prediction: 24-17 Iowa

Illinois -8 @ Northwestern

Pretty much any time Northwestern has played a competent team this year, it’s been bad news. The Wildcats have lost games by 44, 24, 26, 20, 17, and 19, suggesting they have a really hard time keeping games close once they’re down.

I think Illinois has the offensive firepower to get a lead and build on it as the game goes. I don’t love taking big road favorites but the Fighting Illini are just way better than Northwestern and sometimes that’s what matters.

Prediction: 27-14 Illinois

Ohio State -19.5 vs Michigan

We’re getting into favorites season which sometimes means laying more points than we’d ordinarily like to. What we have here is a motivation discrepancy that might even outstrip the talent disparity of this matchup.

The Buckeyes have lost their last three against Michigan and now get the Wolverines in their building with all the pressure on coach Ryan Day to get a big win. I think the difference in quality of rosters and coaching really shows up here and Ohio State gets another blowout victory to close the regular season.

Prediction: 34-10 Ohio State

Fresno State +8.5 @ UCLA

It’s entirely possible this will turn into a home game of sorts for the Bulldogs who don’t have a lot of ground to cover to reach the Rose Bowl. This isn’t your dad’s Fresno State but the team still has a knack for playing close contests, having finished with margins of eight, three, one, eight, and six this year.

I don’t think the talent discrepancy is as wide here as in other power conference-group of five matchups so give me the Bulldogs to hang around, covering but not winning.

Prediction: 27-24 UCLA

Penn State -25 vs Maryland

Another big spread, another entrustment on my part that the Nittany Lions will play up to their talent level. If this happens, Penn State will dog-walk Maryland but as we all know, it’s not quite that simple.

I’ve said in recent picks articles that Maryland’s strong passing attack should help them avoid getting blown out but this hasn’t really come to fruition. I think Penn State runs the ball all over the yard and gets a decisive win that secures an 11-win season.

Prediction: 35-7 Penn State

USC +7.5 vs Notre Dame

This is my hottest pick of the week, bar none. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has the Trojans’ offense clicking in a way it hasn’t since early in the year and Notre Dame remains fully untested against quality competition this season unless you count its 10-point win over Texas A&M in coach Mike Elko’s first game with the Aggies.

USC gets a full touchdown to work with in this one and faces a team traveling long-distance to close the year. I think this one comes down to the wire and I’m calling for the outright upset.

Prediction: 28-27 USC

Michigan State -1.5 vs Rutgers

I’ve been pretty bad picking these teams this year but someone has to win. I like Michigan State’s motivation advantage, needing a win to secure bowl eligibility as well as its up-and-coming quarterback Aidan Chiles.

I think there’s a chance Michigan State turns this one into a blowout, particularly if it gets an early lead since Rutgers is far from explosive enough in the passing game to recover from a big deficit.

Prediction: 28-21 Michigan State

Indiana -29 vs Purdue

Purdue isn’t much more of a challenge than a bye week and Indiana has made a killing rolling bad teams this year. Coming off a humiliating loss to Ohio State last weekend, the Hoosiers will need style points to convince Playoff Committee voters that they should be in the dance.

I think Indiana comes out hot with a serious motivation edge and lays it on Purdue in the second half, winning by over 30.

Prediction: 42-10 Indiana

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