Opponent Preview: Penn State set for tricky test Week 3 at Illinois

Penn State is just two weeks out from the start of the 2023 season. Expectations are as high as they’ve ever been under head coach James Franklin, as the Nittany Lions will start the year at No. 7 overall in both major polls. Between the excitement surrounding Drew Allar and a host of future NFL players, this is easily the most depth we’ve seen in Happy Valley in over a decade.

However, it won’t be easy for Penn State, as the Nittany Lions have quality teams scheduled in each month of the calendar. After previewing West Virginia yesterday, we’ll now switch our focus to PSU’s first road test of the year at Illinois.

Quick Facts

All-Time Series: Penn State leads 20-6
Last Meeting: The visiting Illini overcame Penn State 20-18 in a battle that required an FBS record nine overtimes to settle on Oct. 23, 2021
Head Coach: Bret Bielema (13-12 in two seasons at Illinois; career coaching record: 110-70)
2022 Record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense, 0 specialists)

Returning Leaders

Rushing: RB Reggie Love III (329 yards, 2 TD)
Passing: None
Receiving: WR Isaiah Williams (715 yards, 5 TD)
Tackles: DT Jer’Zhan Newton (62)
Sacks: DT Jer’Zhan Newton (5.5)
Interceptions: S Matthew Bailey (3)

What Could Go Right

If the offensive line, which returns Julian Pearl, Isaiah Adams and Zy Crisler, is as sturdy as it was last year, Illinois can continue to build around its running game, giving its new quarterback a chance to settle in.

Link: Where does Penn State sit in final preseason SP+ rankings?

What Could Go Wrong

The takeaway spree that contributed to Illinois’ rise last year — the Illini led the nation with 24 interceptions — could come to an end, forcing the team to lean more heavily on an offense that sputtered at times in 2022 and has some big holes to fill this fall.

Summary

Anyone who thinks a back-to-basics approach can’t work in college football anymore, at least not without Michigan’s talent, should check out what Bret Bielema has been doing at Illinois the past two years.

Other than maybe Jim Harbaugh, there’s no greater proponent of the Big Ten’s eternal verities than Bielema. Run the ball. Play tough defense. That’s been his formula for success everywhere he’s gone, and now he’s getting results at a place with an appreciation for old-school football virtues.

When the former Wisconsin and Arkansas coach arrived in December 2020, Illinois hadn’t enjoyed a winning season since going 7-6 in 2011 under Ron Zook.

In Bielema’s first season, the Illini won five games, including upsets of seventh-ranked Penn State and 20th-ranked Minnesota. Last year, they were one of the season’s more pleasant surprises, winning eight games with an offense built around the hard-nosed running of Chase Brown and a defense that allowed an FBS-low 12.8 points per game. Although a late-season slide ended their Big Ten West Division title hopes, they did throw a scare into eventual conference champion Michigan and were competitive in all of their losses.

This year, the Illini must replace Brown, who ranked fourth in the FBS with 1,643 rushing yards and went in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. The team’s top returning rusher is Reggie Love III, who gained 329 yards in limited action a year ago.

Illinois must also find a new quarterback and will likely end up relying on a transfer, either Luke Altmyer, formerly of Ole Miss, or John Paddock, formerly of Ball State. Three starters are back on the offensive line, so that will help smooth the transition.

Notebook: Which of Penn State’s freshmen are on pace to play this season?

Defensively, the Illini had to find a new coordinator when Ryan Walters left to become head coach at Purdue. Aaron Henry was tapped for the job after overseeing Illinois’ defensive backs the past two years. The continuity should serve this defense well after last year’s stellar performance. Also back are defensive tackles Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr., both of whom were good enough in 2022 to consider leaving for the NFL.

If there’s a concern on this side of the ball, it’s in the secondary, where only one starter returns: cornerback Tahveon Nicholson.

By the end of the 2022 regular season, the Illinois administration had seen enough progress to give Bielema a firm vote of confidence, awarding him a new six-year contract that extends through the 2028 season. Athletics director Josh Whitman called it a step toward building Illinois “into the championship-caliber program we envision.”

The Illini aren’t there yet, but they’re in better shape than most people would likely have expected them to be at this point.