Closing Line: A look at how Penn State football performed against the spread in 2021

Penn State closed out its regular season with a 7-5 record following a loss to Michigan State last Saturday.

Most Nittany Lion fans are disappointed with the final outcome, especially after Penn State started the season 5-0 and ascended into the top-5 of the AP Poll.

But how did Penn State’s season compare with the expectations the bookmakers set?

The win total set for the Nittany Lions by Vegas Insider before the season was nine, and Penn State fell well short of that landmark.

The bookies also tabbed the Nittany Lions as 7-1 underdogs to win the Big Ten title. Any bettors who made that play were likely feeling good about their odds heading into a week six clash with Iowa.

Everything unraveled from there, though, and any real chance of cashing in on the bet fell through with a loss to lowly Illinois at home two weeks later.

The same is true of those who bet on Penn State to win the national title at 80-1.

Ultimately, the Nittany Lions finished with the same 7-5 record straight up and against the spread.

Let’s take a game-by-game look at how they got there.

Penn State’s record against the spread

PSU + 5.5 at Wisconsin

The Nittany Lions opened the regular season with one of their best results against the spread all year. Penn State gutted out a 16-10 win in Madison as a 5.5-point underdog, relying on some timely takeaways and some excellent red-zone defense to bail out a sputtering offense. That would become a theme. This is Penn State’s only win as an underdog all season.

PSU -22.5 vs Ball State

Penn State covered its largest spread of the season in Week Two against defending MAC champs Ball State. The 44 points the Nittany Lions scored marked a season-high, but Penn State still went under the 58.5 point total, which is another season-long trend that began early.

PSU -5 vs Auburn

The Nittany Lions began the year with their third consecutive win against the spread, besting Auburn 28-20 in the annual White Out game. It was arguably Penn State’s best performance on offense against a Power Five opponent this season. The Nittany Lions posted 28 points and 5.8 yards per play against a very solid Auburn defense. For the third week in a row, though, Penn State went under the 52.5-point total

PSU -29.5 vs Villanova

The Wildcats handed the Nittany Lions their first loss of the season against the spread, covering the 29.5-point margin in a 38-17 Penn State victory. The Wildcats played the Nittany Lions very tough at Beaver Stadium, especially on defense as they controlled Penn State’s lackluster run game well. This game also went over the 53-point total for the first time.

PSU -12.5 vs Indiana

The Nittany Lions got back to their winning ways against Indiana with a demolition job of the Hoosiers. Michael Penix and the Indiana offense never got off the ground against the stout Nittany Lion defense, which held the Hoosiers off the scoreboard in a 24-0 Penn State win that fell well shy of the 53.5-point total.

PSU +2.5 at Iowa

Hitting the road for the second time on the season, the Nittany Lions seemed well-positioned to cover the spread against the Hawkeyes before quarterback Sean Clifford left the game in the first half with an injury. Penn State’s offense, with no running game to fall back on, stalled and the Hawkeyes bounced back to narrowly cover with a 23-20 win. Despite Penn State’s QB problems, this game went over the 41-point total.

PSU -24.5 vs Illinois

This is the true shocker, and the game that changed the complexion of Penn State’s season. The Nittany Lions entered this game as 24.5-point favorites — their largest cushion against a power conference opponent this year. The Illini emerged with a 20-18 win in nine overtimes to give the Lions their second loss and their third loss against the spread on the season. Despite the overtime periods, this game went under the 46-point total.

PSU +19.5 at Ohio State

Penn State acquitted itself well in a road matchup against the Buckeyes following the disappointment against Illinois. The Nittany Lions stayed with the Buckeyes every step of the way to cover the 19.5-point spread comfortably in a 33-24 defeat. This game fell shy of the 60.5-point total, marking the sixth time in eight games that Penn State hit the under.

PSU -10 at Maryland

The Nittany Lions were road favorites for the first time all season when they traveled to Maryland to take on the Terps. They left it late, making most of their hay in the fourth quarter, but ultimately covered the spread in what was a 31-14 victory. Penn State also hit the under for the third consecutive week in this one.

PSU+2.5 vs Michigan

This game marked the first time this season that the bookies made the Nittany Lions a home underdog, as eventual Big Ten East champs Michigan made the trip to Beaver Stadium. Penn State seemed primed to pull the upset late in the fourth quarter until a long touchdown pass to Erick All put the Wolverines in front to stay. This game also fell comfortably short of the 48-point total.

PSU -14 vs Rutgers

Despite a flu outbreak that impacted many key players on the roster, including QB Sean Clifford, the Nittany Lions covered easily against the Scarlet Knights.. They also finished well under the 45-point total, marking the fifth consecutive game they hit the under.

PSU -4.5 at Michigan State

This game saw some heavy line movement throughout the week. It opened as a pick-em before reports of a flu outbreak on Michigan State’s sideline saw the line move to make Penn State a 4.5-point favorite. Ultimately, though, the Spartans emerged as winners as they completed their 10-win regular season at home, 30-27. This game also snapped Penn State’s streak of hitting the under, going over the 51.5-point total.