How could Penn State still make the Big Ten title game? Tiebreaker scenarios explained
Penn State football has a very narrow path to still make the Big Ten title game, even after it lost to Ohio State earlier this year. However, its odds of doing so are equivalent to winning the Power Ball jackpot.
The conference has determined that Oregon is guaranteed a spot in the league title game in early December at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Ducks will be on one of the sidelines in Indianapolis. Nothing that happens over the next two weeks can change that. But, results from across the conference could lead Penn State to face head coach Dan Lanning’s team. However, it is highly unlikely that will be the case.
What Penn State paths exist to make the Big Ten title game?
In a memo released to the public on Tuesday, the Big Ten says there are 10 possible scenarios remaining to determine who Oregon faces in the championship game. The document’s scenario two gives Penn State a chance to get in based on some other math that is applicable only if the Lions win out while Ohio State beats Indiana this weekend and then loses to Michigan next weekend while the Hoosiers beat Purdue after losing to the Buckeyes. It reads as follows:
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–Oregon finishes 9-0
–Indiana and Penn State finish 8-1 (both lost to OSU)
–Ohio State finishes 7-2 (losses to ORE and MICH)
OUTCOME: Oregon earns outright berth as No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed will be determined by highest
cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents at the end of the
season for IND and PSU.
As PennLive’s Johnny McGonigal notes, that tiebreaker is virtually certain to favor Penn State, meaning it would be the most likely of the two unlikely paths, as the document’s scenario No. 10, and the only other one that ends up with Penn State in the Big Ten title game for the first time since 2016, requires PSU to win out, Ohio State to beat Indiana then lose to Michigan, while Indiana loses to the Buckeyes and then also Purdue. It reads:
“–Oregon finishes 9-0 or 8-1
–Penn State finishes 8-1 (lost to OSU)
–Indiana and Ohio State finish 7-2 (IND lost to OSU and PUR; OSU lost to ORE and MICH)
OUTCOME: Oregon and Penn State earn berths into champ game. Oregon earns No. 1 seed due to win vs. common opponent ranked highest in conference standings (OSU; ORE def. OSU; OSU def. PSU)
The full list of scenarios can be found here. In all likelihood, the winner of Saturday’s Ohio State-Indiana tilt will meet Oregon in Indy. However, two paths remain for Penn State, even if each is extremely unlikely to lead them to the title game.
