How far do two new College Football Playoff projections have Penn State going in 2025?
There is a nationwide consensus among media members and oddsmakers that Penn State football is good enough to make the College Football Playoff in 2025 for the second consecutive year. However, there is little agreement about how far they will go in the postseason, which makes head coach James Franklin’s team one of the more polarizing ones in the country this preseason. Two new sets of projections for the 12-team tournament make that obvious.
First, for On3, national college football writer Ari Wasserman recently updated his predictions as June readies to turn into July and put us one month out from the start of preseason camp. He is of the mindset that head coach James Franklin’s team will earn a first round bye as the Big Ten champions but then be upset by No. 10 seed Alabama in the quarterfinals to leave the Lions one game away from reaching the point that they did a year ago. The Crimson Tide would officially be on a roll at that point, as Wasserman has them knocking off Georgia in round one.
“Alabama didn’t win the SEC or win its first matchup with Georgia, but the Crimson Tide get hot at the right time,” Wasserman writes. “Penn State is still trying to prove it can win against top-tier competition in the postseason and it has the unfortunate reality of facing an ultra-talented Alabama team that’s feeling good about itself right out of the gate. Alabama advances.”
More: What’s next for Penn State’s Class of 2026 after landing Pierce Petersohn?
Elsewhere, Sporting News’ Bill Bender has a different take on how things will play out for the Lions. He sees them taking a similar path to the one they did a year ago. Then, Penn State started its run by beating Group of Five champ SMU. This year, if Bender’s projections hold, the Lions would take out the top G5 team, Navy, at Beaver Stadium to advance to the quarterfinals. There, he has Penn State taking out Clemson in the Orange Bowl before finishing one step shy of the title game again by losing to Texas in a semifinal game at the Peach Bowl.
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“It’s an all Big Ten-SEC semifinal round this time, and the Nittany Lions would pose a challenge for [Arch] Manning with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles,” Bender writes. “Both of these teams lost semifinal matchups last season, so the pressure would be on James Franklin and Steve Sarkisian to get to that national championship game. This would be Sark’s third straight crack at a CFP championship game. Texas delivers this time.”
It would not be the outcome Penn State fans are looking for, of course. And it begs the question of what defines a successful season in your mind? Let us know over on The Lions Den message board.
