How many games will Penn State win in 2023 according to ESPN's FPI?

Penn State football finished its first 15 practices of the year happy and healthy following last Saturday’s Blue-White game. The Nittany Lions did have some bumps and bruises before and during the March through April stretch that kept some players out for various lengths of time. All told, though, things went mostly as the program hoped they would.

“Overall, I thought it was darn good,” Franklin said. “I think you guys saw that there were some guys that weren’t dressed. We anticipate all those guys being back. Just some bumps and bruises and things like that. We expect all those guys to be back and ready to go. They just weren’t ready to go this spring.”

Now, all eyes turn toward the remainder of the semester and of course the start of the 2023 season. Penn State is a top-10 team according to most media preseason rankings. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) agrees. It has the Lions at No. 10 in its first installment of the year. What does that tell us about what the program’s record could be in 2023? Let’s take a look.

ESPN FPI sees a perfect non-conference slate for Penn State

First off, here’s how the Football Power Index works in the preseason, per ESPN:

“In the preseason it relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections.”

Unsurprisingly, Penn State is expected to be perfect in the non-conference portion of its schedule. FPI has the Lions’ chances of beating West Virginia in the opener at 91 percent. It also gives Franklin’s chance a 99 percent chance of dispatching of Delaware and UMass.

The Lions will likely slip up at some point this fall. But, it shouldn’t be against a team that isn’t in the Big Ten.

Big Ten schedule will be tougher

Considering the percentages listed above, this one is obvious. But, the FPI still sees plenty of good things in the Lions’ future.

Penn State will open Big Ten play in the season’s third week at Illinois. The Lions’ chance of victory in that contest is 75.5 percent. It is 83.9 percent the following weekend when the team welcomes Iowa to Beaver Stadium. Northwestern is the Lions’ final opponent of September. The FPI gives the visitors a 87.1 percent chance of winning at Ryan Field.

After UMass and the bye week, Penn State will face its toughest test of the season up until that point in time when it visits Ohio State on Oct. 21. The Lions have only an 11.6 percent chance of upsetting the Buckeyes, per the FPI. Their odds of scoring a win the next week are much better, however. Its chance of victory is 94.6 percent when Indiana visits Beaver Stadium to close out October.

Penn State starts the final month of the season with a trip to Maryland. The Nittany Lions are given a 76.3 percent chance of winning that contest. The FPI does project Penn State to be a home underdog, however, when Michigan visits the following weekend. The Lions are given a 46.9 percent chance of topping the Wolverines. But, that’s the last projected loss. The FPI makes Penn State 94.7 percent likely to beat Rutgers and gives it a 67.8 percent chance of closing out the season with a win at Michigan State.

Full ESPN FPI win percentage predictions for Penn State

Sept. 2, vs. West Virginia: 91 percent chance of victory

Sept. 9, vs. Delaware: 99 percent chance of victory

Sept. 16, at Illinois: 75.5 percent chance of victory

Sept. 24, vs. Iowa: 83.9 percent chance of victory

Sept. 30, at Northwestern: 87.1 percent chance of victory

Oct. 14, vs. UMass: 99 percent chance of victory

Oct. 21, at Ohio State: 11.6 percent chance of victory

Oct. 28, vs. Indiana: 94.6 percent chance of victory

Nov. 4, vs. Maryland: 76.3 percent chance of victory

Nov. 11, vs. Michigan: 46.9 percent chance of victory

Nov. 18, vs. Rutgers: 94.7 percent chance of victory

Nov. 25, at Michigan State: 67.8 percent chance of victory

Projected Penn State record in 2023 per ESPN’s FPI: 10-2