NCAA Wrestling Championships predictions: How many champs, All-Americans, will Penn State have?

The 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships start Thursday inside of the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. Penn State is sending a participant in each of the 10 weight classes to the annual event for the first time in a decade. It aims to win its third consecutive team title. The No. 1 Nittany Lions could become the second team in NCAA history to have 10 All-Americans. And, Carter Starocci, who competes at 174 pounds, and Aaron Brooks, who wrestles at 197, are looking to join an exclusive club of four-time NCAA title winners that includes their head coach, Cael Sanderson.

How will the Lions perform? Our picks are in.

125 pounds: Penn State freshman Braeden Davis

Seed: No. 1

Opening opponent: Winner of No. 33 Tristan Lujuan, Michigan State vs. Mike Joyce, Brown

Weight class breakdown: Davis won the Big Ten title two weekends ago, which is how he went from the No. 6 seed at the conference-level event to the top seed at nationals. If you’ve been following our coverage all season, you know our opinion of the 125-pound weight class. It’s a major guessing game week-to-week in terms of who will be upset next.

With that said, we like Davis’ draw, even if a wrestler he needed sudden victory to beat during the dual meet season, Rutgers’ Dylan Peterson, is a likely second-round opponent on Thursday night. Looking for another positive for the Nittany Lion? The only two wrestlers to top the 20-2 freshman this year, Caleb Smith of Nebraska and Drake Ayala of Iowa, are the Nos. 15 and 3 seeds, respectively, which have them on the other side of the bracket. If the seeds hold, Davis would face Purdue’s Matt Ramos (25-5) in the semifinals.

Prediction: As noted, the only consistent thing about the 125-pound weight class during the 2023-2024 season is how inconsistent it has been from perspective of anyone being capable of beating anyone else on any given day. Davis was impressive at the Big Ten Tournament, beating numerous wrestlers who were multiple years older than him, and we expect his form to hold up at nationals. But, picking the top seed to win it all this year feels unwise based on everything we’ve seen. Thus, we project Davis to end up in the third-place match, which he will win while also becoming an All-American for the first time.

Our pick to win the bracket is Ayala.

133 pounds: Sophomore Aaron Nagao

Seed: No. 10

Expected opening opponent: No. 10 Aaron Nagao, PSU vs. No. 23 Marlon Yarbrough, Virginia

Weight class breakdown: Nagao finished third at Big Tens, where he pinned his opponent in the placing match to roll into the season’s final stage with plenty of confidence. That said, the first-year Nittany Lion has had an up-and-down season, mostly due to illness but also an inconsistent ability to finish shots and light up the scoreboard, and carries with him a 14-5 record into nationals. An opening-round win seems likely, but the Penn State starter will need a seeding upset over No. 7 Nasir Bailey of Little Rock in Round 2 to make the quarters.

Even if that happens, it’s hard to see Nagao beating Lehigh’s Ryan Crookham, the No. 2 seed who beat the Nittany Lion 6-4 earlier this year, but it’s not an impossible task. That said, it’s more likely than not that Nagao’s championship bracket run goes no further than the quarters. Top-seed Dalton Fix of Oklahoma State and Crookham will make the finals if the seeds hold. 

Prediction: If you think Penn State will not have 10 All-Americans this year, then you probably think Nagao will not hit the podium. We think he will, as he’s proven capable of being motivated in the consolation bracket throughout his college career. Thus, we will predict Nagao to outperform his seed by finishing seventh.

As for the winner of the bracket, we’re going with top-seeded Fix.

141 pounds: Penn State senior Beau Bartlett

Seed: No. 2

Expected opening opponent: No. 2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs. No. 31 Kai Owen, Colorado

Weight class breakdown: Bartlett beat NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed Jesse Mendez of Ohio State during the dual meet season. But, he lost to the Buckeye in the Big Ten finals. It’s why he finds himself on the bottom half of the bracket. No. 18 Cole Matthews of Pittsburgh is an unfavorable draw but likely second-round opponent. The Penn State senior beat the Panther in tiebreaker one at nationals a year ago. If he can do so again, his path to the semifinals is favorable. There, the Nittany Lion would likely see No. 3 Real Woods of Iowa. Bartlett beat him handily during the dual meet season but the Hawkeye did beat him by decision in 2023. It is easily one of the most anticipated potential semifinal matchups of the tournament.

Prediction: Is this finally Bartlett’s time to stand on the tallest podium at nationals? It’s a safe bet that one of Mendez, Bartlett, or Woods will win this weight class. But, history tells us any of the three can beat the other two in any given tournament. Bartlett has, on paper,  an easier path to the finals, though we can’t overstate how tough the potential second round matchup with Matthews will be. But, we’ll predict him to pass that test and all the rest to be the Nittany Lions’ first crowned champion at NCAAs in 2024.

149 pounds: Freshman Tyler Kasak

Seed: No. 7

Expected opening opponent: No. 7 Tyler Kasak, PSU vs. No. 26 Jaden Abas, Stanford

Weight class breakdown: Kasak rolls into his first NCAA Tournament following a third-place finish at Big Tens. He is 17-4 on the year. The first-year Nittany Lion is likely to see his championship bracket run end in the quarterfinals assuming the seeds hold and he must face No. 2 Kyle Parco of Arizona State there. He is the favorite to win the bottom half of the bracket. No. 1 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska is both the favorite on the top half of the bracket and the most likely winner of the weight class.

Prediction: It’s fairly easy to predict how far a wrestler will go in the championship bracket. Making pre-tournament predictions about how far they will go in the consolation bracket, however, is a lot more challenging. There are plenty of reasons for that. Potential injury defaults are one. Upsets in the championship bracket that create extremely challenging consolation bracket matches are another. But, with that caveat, we’ll call Kasak an eventual All-American by virtue of a sixth-place finish.

As for the bracket itself, we’re calling Lovett its champ.

157 pounds: Penn State sophomore Levi Haines

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Levi Haines, PSU vs. winner of No. 33 Nick Stampoulous, Buffalo vs. No. 32 Isaax Wilcox, Ohio State

Weight class breakdown: Two-time Big Ten champion Levi Haines aims to win his first NCAA title after earning All-American status and finishing second a year ago. He is 18-0 on the year, 10-0 against the field, and easily the cream of the crop. An All-Big Ten quarterfinal on the top half of the top side of the bracket is likely with Haines facing either No. 8 Peyton Robb of Nebraska or No. 9 Will Lewan of Michigan. The Penn State sophomore is perfect against both in his career, but the Wolverine has lost closer matches (two in sudden victory and one by decision, 2-1) than the Cornhusker, who has dropped a pair of 10-3 bouts to the Nittany Lion.

On the bottom half, two-seed Jacori Teemer of Arizona State or No. 3 Myles Shapiro of Cornell are the most likely finalists. 

Prediction: Two things feel likely here. The first is that the bracket will chalk out, leading to a Haines-Teemer final. The second is that the Penn State wrestler will win a close final, making him the second Nittany Lion national champion during the 2023-2024 season.

165 pounds: Redshirt freshman Mitchell Mesenbrink

Seed: No. 2

Opening opponent: No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs. No. 31 Maxx Mayfield, Northwestern

Weight class breakdown: Mesenbrink enters this year’s NCAA Tournament fresh off a Big Ten title. He is 22-0 overall and 10-0 against the field. The bracket draw worked out fine for the Nittany Lion. He is favored to make the semifinals. He could see No. 3 Julan Rameriez of Cornell there or a foe he already beat this year in No. 6 Mikey Caliendo of Iowa. The first-year Penn State wrestler is also favored to make the finals, where he’d meet No. 1 Keegan O’Toole of Missouri, who is the favorite to win the weight class this year, if the bracket chalks out. No. 4 David Carr of Iowa State and No. 5 Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin will both have something to say about that, of course. But, O’Toole, a two-time NCAA champ, leads the field here.

Penn State prediction: It would be unwise to put winning a title out of reach for Mesenbrink. He’s taken the college wrestling world by storm this year with his aggressive style, seemingly endless gas tank, and high-scoring ways. But, O’Toole is a heavy favorite and rightly so. We’ll go with Mesenbrink losing to the Tiger in the finals to earn a runner-up finish and All-American honors for the first time.

174 pounds: Penn State senior Carter Starocci

Seed: No. 9

Expected opening opponent: No. 9 Carter Starocci, PSU vs. No. 24 Andrew Sparks, Minnesota

Weight class breakdown: The status of Starocci’s knee injury has been the talk of the sport since it happened in late February. Despite claiming to be ready to wrestle, Penn State coach Cael Sanderson directed the three-time NCAA champion to forfeit for medical reasons twice at Big Tens so he could continue healing. That choice, which Starocci clearly did not agree with but has since accepted, is fueling the Nittany Lion. We’ll see him on the mat for the first time Thursday to get a feel for what, if any, limitations he has.

The going rate is that there won’t be any. Starocci figures to face No. 1 Mehki Lewis of Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals. In just about any other year, that would be a likely finals matchup. The Nittany Lion beat the Hokie in last year’s NCAA finals. Michigan’s Shane Griffith is the No. 4 seed and possible semifinal opponent for either, but he medically defaulted out of the Big Ten final due to a knee injury that has his own status in question. We’d be surprised if anyone other than No. 2 Cade Devos of San Diego State makes the final from the bottom half of the bracket. But, No. 3 Edmond Ruth from Illinois will look to make a run if he makes it to that side’s semifinal.

Penn State prediction: You may want to pick against Starocci due to his injury status. We refuse to. The Penn State star sounds as motivated as ever and is adamant that his health should not be a question mark to consider entering the tournament. Anything is possible. But, until seeing otherwise, we’ll pick him to win title number four. If he doesn’t, it’s because Lewis knocked him out in the quarters before cruising to a title.

184 pounds: Graduate senior Bernie Truax

Seed: No. 6

Opening opponent: No. 6 Bernie Truax, Penn State vs. No. 27 Cameron Pine, Clarion

Weight class breakdown: Truax comes to his fourth national tournament fresh off a runner-up finish at Big Tens. He is already a three-time All-American from his time at Cal Poly before arriving at Penn State for the 2023-2024 season. He is on track to face No. 3 Dustin Plott of Oklahoma State in the quarters. Getting there and defeating him would likely lead Truax to find himself opposite Minnesota’s Isaiah Salazar, the NCAA No. 2 seed who just beat him by a bit of a deceiving 8-1 decision in sudden victory at the conference tournament, in the semifinals. No. 1 Parker Keckeisen of Northern Iowa is likely to hold serve on the top half of the bracket.

Penn State prediction: We made Traux finishing third or higher at nationals our bold prediction for NCAAs at the end of the regular season. We are not backing down from that stance. But, we will predict the senior to finish third after losing to Salazar in the semifinals before wrestling back for bronze on Saturday morning. 

As for the bracket’s winner? We go with Salazar over top-seeded Parker Keckeisen of Northern Iowa in an upset.

197 pounds: Penn State graduate senior Aaron Brooks

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Aaron Brooks, PSU vs. winner of No. 33 Evan Bates, Northwestern vs. No. 32 John Crawford, Franklin & Marshall

Weight class breakdown: Brooks won his first three NCAA titles by dominating at 184 pounds. He changed weights this year to 197. But, his prolific run as a college wrestler has been unchanged. He is again a Big Ten champ and is 17-0 on the season and 9-0 against this field. We see no one who can stop the Penn State star on the top half of the bracket. And, it’s a safe bet to say that the wrestling world is begging for the seeds to hold, which would lead to a final between Brooks and two-seed Trent Hidlay of North Carolina State. He, of course, is a Pa., native and Mifflin County alum.

Penn State prediction: The Brooks/Hidlay final is an epic that has fans talking all offseason about how great it was. But, the ending of that story will feature Brooks being crowned as the champion for the fourth time in his prolific college career.

285 pounds: Senior Greg Kerkvliet

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs. winner of No. 33 Jordan Greer, Ohio vs. No. 32 Nick Willham, Indiana

Weight class breakdown: After being the hunter to start his college career, Kerkvliet is the hunted wrestler now in this weight class. He is a Big Ten champ and 15-0 on the year, which includes a 10-0 mark against this field. We can’t find any way to make a case for the Penn State senior not to make the finals. Who he wrestles there, though, is less clear. A semifinal on the bottom half between No. 2 Yonder Bastida of Iowa State and No. 3 Wyatt Hendrickson of Air Force could be the best bout of Friday night’s semifinal session if it materializes. 

Penn State prediction: Kerkvliet beat Hendrickson at last year’s national tournament by decision. He has never faced Bastida. But, he’d be favored to win that hypothetical finals match. Thus, we’ll go ahead and predict the Penn State multi-time All-American to become a first-time NCAA champ bt beating Hendrickson in the finals.

Penn State nationals prediction rundown

Recapping our breakdown above, we have Penn State earning five individual national championships plus its third consecutive team title. We also have each Nittany Lion earning All-American honors. Here it is in list form:

125 pounds: Braeden Davis: Third

133 pounds: Aaron Nagao, Seventh

141 pounds: Beau Bartlett, First

149 pounds: Tyler Kasak, Sixth

157 pounds: Levi Haines, First

165 pounds: Mitchell Mesenbrink, Second

174 pounds: Carter Starocci, First

184 pounds: Bernie Truax, Third

197 pounds: Aaron Brooks, First

285 pounds: Greg Kerkvliet, First

Team: Penn State, First