Scouting the spread: Penn State football a three-score favorite against Rutgers
Penn State Nittany Lions football welcomes the Rutgers Scarlet Knights to Beaver Stadium for a noon kick this Saturday, and the Lions will be a heavy favorite.
Vegas Insider’s Consensus line tabs Penn State as a 17-point favorite, as of Monday morning. The line had moved to 17.5 overnight but flexed back in the morning hours.
Penn State is now 6-4 overall and 6-4 against the spread this season, having failed to cover in a loss to Michigan this weekend.
Penn State is 5-1 straight up this season when it enters the game as the favorite, with the lone loss coming earlier this year in a shock defeat to Illinois.
The Scarlet Knights are now 5-5 overall and 6-4 against the spread this season. They obliterated Indiana 38-3 this weekend in a game which they entered as a 7-point underdog. Rutgers needs one more win to become bowl eligible with Penn State and Maryland remaining on its schedule.
The case for Penn State to cover
The Nittany Lions are stronger on both sides of the ball from a total yardage point of view.
Penn State averages 378.9 yards per game on offense to 326.5 for the Scarlet Knights. On defense, the Nittany Lions surrender 351.7 yards per game compared to 372 for Rutgers.
The Nittany Lions maintain an advantage on both sides of the ball when we break it down further and look at yards per play as well.
We know that Penn State’s defense is excellent, mostly because it thrives in the red zone. The Nittany Lions boast the nation’s fifth-best red zone defense and the third best in the Power Five conferences, surrendering points on just under 64 percent of opposition red zone entries.
On offense, it looks like the Nittany Lion running game could be getting going ever so slightly after spinning its wheels for most of the season.
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Penn State produced its first 100-yard rushing performance in four weeks, and running back Keyvone Lee carried the ball 20 times for 88 yards. It wasn’t a remarkable showing, but by Penn State’s low standards of late, it was an improvement.
The case for Rutgers to cover
The Scarlet Knights enter this game with a bit of momentum following a demolition job against Indiana last week. The 35-point win was their largest margin of victory since joining the Big Ten ahead of the 2014 season.
They also have made a habit of playing the Nittany Lions close. The Scarlet Knights have kept the margin within the 17-point spread for this weekend in two of the last three games between these two programs.
Rutgers has covered in three of its last four games against Penn State as well, with the exception coming last season.
The Scarlet Knights are comfortable away from home too, with three wins in five road games.
Finally, it’s worth considering the status of Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford. He was beaten up against the Wolverines, getting sacked seven times and taking countless more hits.
The Nittany Lions have shown that they aren’t capable of doing much on offense when he isn’t 100 percent, so that’s a key point heading into this weekend.
