Penn State at the Big Ten Wrestling championships: Preview, predictions, more

The 2024 Big Ten Wrestling Championships are this weekend in College Park, Md. No. 1 Penn State is a heavy favorite to take this year’s title. It has five No. 1 seeds and eight of its 10 starters are seeded inside of the top five.

“I don’t think anybody’s peaked yet,” Lions coach Cael Sanderson said this week. “I think everybody has their eyes set on the bigger events at the end. But yeah, there’s some different things, everyone’s different. Obviously, different levels of experience. And then weight management is different. So that obviously factors into the training of each individual. I think our our guys are excited and at peace and ready to roll.”

Below, we take a look at how each weight class could play out.

125 pounds: Penn State freshman Braeden Davis

Seed: No. 6

Expected opening opponent: No. 11 Justin Cardani of Illinois

Weight class breakdown:  Penn State freshman Braeden Davis did not officially become the team’s starter in the lightest weight class until January. He got off to a torrid start as the program’s main man here but cooled off down the stretch as the competition ratcheted up. Still, Davis projects as the No. 6 seed, at worst, at the conference tournament. With the Big Ten nine wrestlers to NCAAs at this weight, he should advance with ease by simply wrestling to form. However, in order to win his first conference tournament, he would likely need to avenge a loss to Iowa’s Drake Ayala, who beat him during the dual meet season, to make the finals.

Penn State prediction: Davis will finish higher than his tournament seed but top-seed Matt Ramos of Purdue will win the wide-open field. Davis finishes third.

133 pounds: Sophomore Aaron Nagao

Seed: No. 5

Expected opening opponent: No. 12 Andrew Hampton of Michigan State

Weight class breakdown: Sanderson told reporters in late February that starter and sophomore Aaron Nagao had been battling an illness that caused him to miss a January match with Maryland and a February meeting with Nebraska. The newcomer who transferred in before the 2023-2024 season has had some impressive results with the Lions but also some matches where his inability to create offense and/or finish shots left him on the wrong side of the scoreboard. A healthy Nagao should have no problem being one of the Big Ten’s seven qualifiers (and there are at-large bids available if not). And, he finds himself with a fairly favorable draw, as two wrestlers with wins over him this year, No. 2 seed Dylan Shawver of Michigan and No. 3 Nic Bouzakis of Ohio State, are on the other side of the bracket.

Penn State prediction: Nagao has been tough to trust for much of this season. But, the talent is there. We’ll predict him to avenge his regular season sudden victory loss to top-seed Dylan Ragusin of Michigan in the semifinals before losing to Shawver in the finals.

141 pounds: Penn State senior Beau Bartlett

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: A round one bye will give him the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 bout, which was not yet determined as of the time of this post. It will be updated when that information is available.

Weight class outlook: Senior Beau Bartlett cemented himself as the top dog both in the Big Ten and country by beating reigning No. 1 seed Real Woods of Iowa 7-2 when the two teams met back in February. He is one of the Lions five top seeds at Big Tens. Nebraska’s Brock Hardy will be a tough out for Barlett in the semifinals as the No. 4 seed, but he already beat him once this year.

Penn State prediction: Bartlett will roll into the finals where No. 3 Mendez will be waiting to avenge his sudden victory setback from the regular season. It won’t happen, and Bartlett will be a Big Ten champ.

149 pounds: Freshman Tyler Kasak

Seed: No. 4

Expected opening opponent: No. 13 Aiden Vandenbush of Northwestern

Weight class breakdown: Freshman Tyler Kasak took over the starting spot in January by beating out junior David Evans for the right to replace injured All-American Shayne Van Ness. Like Davis at 125 pounds, Kasak suffered some setbacks in February but is still a top-five seed. He is, however, on the same side of the bracket as No. 1 seed Ridge Lovett of Nebraska, who beat Kasak 7-3 during the dual meet season. A quarterfinals date likely awaits with No. 5 Dylan D’Emillio of Ohio State, who the Nittany Lion beat once earlier this year. The winner sees Lovett in the semis for the right to almost certainly wrestle either No. 2 seed Austin Gomez of Michigan or No. 3 Caleb Rathjen of Iowa in the finals.

Penn State prediction: Kasak will be one of the nine Big Ten wrestlers who qualify for NCAAs. But, he won’t finish first. Instead, he’ll fall to eventual champ Lovett in the semifinals before wrestling back for a third place finish in his first trip to the conference tournament.

157 pounds: Penn State sophomore Levi Haines

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: A first-round bye means he will face the winner of No. 8 Joey Blaze of Purdue and No. 9 Trevor Chumbley of Northwestern in the quarterfinals.

Weight class breakdown: Reigning Big Ten champ and sophomore Levi Haines could be on a collision course to again see Nebraska’s Peyton Robb in the semifinals. The Nittany Lion beat him 3-1 at last year’s conference championships and already once during the 2023-2024 season via a 10-3 decision at Rec Hall in February. With all of that said, Michael Blockhaus of Minnesota is undefeated in Big Ten matches this year and is the two seed. Robb fell to No. 5, which has him on Haines’ side of the bracket until a potential meeting in the semis.

Penn State prediction: We don’t see anyone slowing Haines down en route to a conference crown. He will get the job done despite a tough semifinal against either Robb or Iowa’s Jared Franek.

165 pounds: Redshirt freshman Mitchell Mesenbrink

Seed: No. 2

Expected opening opponent: A first-round bye means Mesenbrink gets the winner of No. 7 Stoney Burell vs. No. 10 Blaine Brenner of Minnesota in the quarterfinals.

Weight class breakdown: Redshirt freshman Mitchell Mesenbrink has been a shining star for the Lions this season. His aggressive style is beloved by the coaching staff and fans. He finished the Big Ten season 8-0, and while his resume is worthy of the top line, he’s No. 2 behind No. 1 Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin, who has 10 wins against Big Ten foes this season. All signs point to the two meeting in the finals for an epic showdown that would shape the seeding at nationals. 

Penn State prediction: The most anticipated final of the tournament takes place as expected and in a high-scoring, high-flying affair, Mesenbrink clips Hamiti in a close match to win his first Big Ten title.

174 pounds: Penn State senior Carter Starocci

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: A first-round bye means he’ll face the winner of No. 8 DJ Washington of Indiana vs. No. 9 Andrew Sparks of Minnesota in the quarterfinals.

Weight class breakdown: Senior Carter Starocci was tracking to add to his already monstrous collection of hardware at the NCAA level as he aims to win his fourth NCAA title. But, a knee injury suffered in the regular season finale against Edinboro has thrown a wrench into things. As of the time of this writing, there was no solidified update on Starocci’s availability for Big Tens or nationals. He would, however, have to at least show up, step on the mat, forfeit at the conference tournament to be eligible for the NCAA Tournament. Sanderson said this week that Starocci’s plan is still to “seek and destroy” his opponents. Whether or not he’ll be able to, however, won’t be know until Saturday.

Penn State prediction: If Starocci is healthy enough to wrestle the four matches needed to win a title, he will do so. If not, Shane Griffith and Michigan becomes the favorite in this weight class.

184 pounds: Graduate senior Bernie Truax

Seed: No. 3

Expected opening opponent: Chase Mielnik of Maryland

Weight class breakdown: Graduate senior Bernie Truax has been a bit of an enigma for Penn State fans during his first and only year in a blue and white singlet. The multi-time All-American at Cal Poly has had matches where he looks unbeatable and others where his offense is next to non-existent. Which wrestler will show up at Big Tens? That’s up to him, of course, but if the best version does, he’ll have no issue grabbing one of the conference’s eight available allotments for the national tournament. Minnesota’s Isaac Salazar is the No. 1 seed. Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto, who beat Truax in February, is No. 2 here. And, Ohio State’s Ryder Rogotzke, who pinned Truax during the dual meet season, is No. 4.

Penn State prediction: Will the real Truax show up? If so, he will bully his way to the semifinals but lost there to Pinto once again before wrestling back to finish third and match his seed.

197 pounds: Penn State graduate senior Aaron Brooks

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: After a first-round bye he will face the winner of No. 8 Evan Bates of Northwestern vs. No. 9 Ben Vanadia of Purdue in the quarters.

Weight class breakdown: No one has threatened Brooks this season despite the fact he now resides in a new class after dominating earlier in his career at 184 pounds. The Nittany Lion is head and shoulders above this field.

Penn State prediction: Brooks returns to the Big Ten tournament as a massive favorite in yet another year. No other member of the field is undefeated against Big Ten competition as Brooks is. He should roll to another conference crown, which would be his first at 197.

285 pounds: Senior Greg Kerkvliet

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: After a first-round bye, he will face the winner of No. 8 Bennett Tabor of Minnesota vs. No. 9 Josh Terrill of Maryland.

Weight class breakdown: Senior Greg Kerkvliet is now the top dog in the Big Ten and country at heavyweight. He beat up No. 2 seed Nick Feldman of Ohio State by major decision, 12-0, in early February. It’s hard to find a challenger who can stop Kerkvliet from becoming a Big Ten champ for the first time in his career.

Penn State prediction: Kerkvliet will fend off all challengers and win a Big Ten title with relative ease.