Penn State at the NCAA Wrestling Championships: Preview, full predictions, brackets, more

The 2025 NCAA Wrestling Championships are here. The annual tournament that first started in 1928 ends yet another season during which head coach Cael Sanderson’s team won a conference regular and postseason title. Now, their sights are set on nationals.

“I think they’re prepared,” Lions coach Cael Sanderson said this week. “And, we’re excited for this. I think they’re excited. I mean, we don’t get too high or too low. Every match, when you’re you’re trying to be the best you can be, it requires kind of that same effort. I think our guys are ready to go. But they’re the ones that get to decide for themselves and go out there and choose to compete with enthusiasm and gratitude or not. But I think right now, things look really, really good.”

Where will each Nittany Lion finish? Who will win each bracket? We get you ready for the three-day event with a preview and predictions for each weight class below.

125 pounds: Penn State freshman Luke Lilledahl

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 33 Caleb Weiand, Michigan State OR No. 32 Marcelli Milani, Cornell

Weight class breakdown: Similar to a year ago, this weight class could be won by a number of wrestlers. Lilledahll, by virtue of a fine first regular season plus a Big Ten title, earned the top spot. Returning NCAA champ Richard Figueroa of Arizona State is on the Penn State freshman’s half of the bracket as the five-seed and could be a semifinal opponent, though he’d have to have a seeding upset over No. 4 Vincent Robinson of N.C. State, potentially, for that to become a reality. Eddie Ventresca of Virginia Tech, the three-seed, and No. 2 Matt Ramos, who Lilledahl beat at Big Tens, are the top names to know on the bottom half of the bracket but hardly the only ones.

Prediction: Lilledahl is wrestling as well as anyone in any weight class right now. It’s no easy task to win a national title as a true freshman. But, at this juncture, picking against him feels like a fools errand after what we saw at Big Tens. He takes home the 125-pound title.

133 pounds: Nittany Lion sophomore Braeden Davis

Seed: No. 8

Expected opening opponent: No. 25 Kurt Phipps, Bucknell

Weight class breakdown: Davis has quite the unfavorable draw. If the seeds hold, he’ll face No. 1 Lucas Byrd of Illinois in a Friday morning quarterfinal. The Fighting Illini wrestle already beat the Nittany Lion once this year and would be favored to do so again. Other favorites here include Drake Ayala of Iowa and Nasir Bailey of Arkansas Little Rock. Those two project to meet in the semifinal on the other half of the bracket.

Prediction: Cael Sanderson says Davis is having his most healthy training stretch of the year. Will that make a difference at nationals? Or, is the fact that he’s been banged up all year too much to overcome? We side with the latter at this point. Could we be proven wrong? Of course. Still, we’ll call him an All-American with a seventh-place finish.

And, Byrd takes this bracket.

141 pounds: Penn State graduate senior Beau Bartlett

Seed: No. 2

Expected opening opponent: No. 31 Jordan Titus, West Virginia

Weight class outlook: Will we see yet another matchup between Bartlett and Ohio State’s Jesse Mendez? If the seeds hold, they’d meet in a Friday night quarterfinal. Nebraska’s Brock Hardy is the No. 1 seed and on the other side of the bracket. He got a bad draw, as Northern Colorado’s Andrew Alirez, who was in the top five all year, awaits him in a quarterfinal matchup potentially as the No. 8 seed. And, don’t sleep on Navy four-seed Josh Koderhandt.

Prediction: A year ago, Mendez took first, Bartlett second, and Hardy third. That order of finish cannot happen again this year, as only one of Mendez or Bartlett can reach the finals. But, those three can make up the top three again. And, we project that they will. We’ll pick the Nittany Lion to beat the Buckeye in the semifinals before losing to Hardy in the finals. So, Bartlett finishes second, Mendez third, and Hardy, of course, is the champ.

149 pounds: Nittany Lions sophomore Shayne Van Ness

Seed: No. 3

Expected opening opponent: No. 30 Gabe Willochell, Wyoming

Weight class breakdown: The bottom half of this bracket, which is where Van Ness finds himself, should lead to a semifinal between the Penn State wrestler opposite No. 2 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska. The Cornhusker beat the Nittany Lion by major decision earlier this year thanks to a big throw. Virginia Tech’s Caleb Henson is the top seed. He finds four-seed Paniro Johnson of Iowa State on his side of the bracket in addition to Iowa’s Kyle Parco.

Prediction: I don’t expect Van Ness to lose to Lovett by major decision again like he did during the dual meet portion of the schedule. But, I am picking the Cornhusker to win again. The Penn State vet ultimately finishes third. And, I’m taking Henson to beat Lovett in the finals to ultimately win this bracket. It would mark back-to-back titles for the Hokie.

157 pounds: Penn State sophomore Tyler Kasak

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 33 Richard Fedalen, Colorado vs. No. 32 Landon Johnson, Northern Illinois

Weight class breakdown: Kasak won the Big Ten title in this weight class, which earns him the top seed at nationals. He won’t cake walk his way to the finals. But, I don’t see anyone giving him too much of a challenge on the top half of the bracket. On the bottom half, Cornell’s Meyer Shapiro, who is the two seed, is the clear class of the field. Antrell Taylor of Nebraska, the three-seed, will be no push over if both make the semifinals, though. Shapiro will also have to deal with Iowa’s Jacori Teemer, who is the No. 18 seed, in Round 2, in all likelihood.

Prediction: Like many other pundits, I have a hard time envisioning anything other than a Kasak-Shapiro final. And, from there, you could flip a coin. We’ll side with Kasak finding a way to come out on top and win his first NCAA title.

165 pounds: Redshirt sophomore Mitchell Mesenbrink

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 33 Chandler Amaker, Central Michigan vs. No. 32 Jared Keslar, Pittsburgh

Weight class breakdown: Mesenbrink rolls into this tournament as the clear favorite at 165 pounds. He could fave former Penn State wrestler Terrell Barraclough, who is now at Utah Valley and is the four seed, in the semifinals, which would be fun. Peyton Hall of West Virginia and Mikey Caliendo of Iowa are the Nos. 2-3 seeds, respectively, on the bottom half of the bracket and project to meet in the semifinals.

Prediction: You won’t find anyone in the world picking against Mesenbrink here. We won’t be the first to do so. The Nittany Lion rolls to his first NCAA title and second All-American honors.

174 pounds: Penn State junior Levi Haines

Seed: No. 2

Expected opening opponent: No. 31 Branson John, Maryland

Weight class breakdown: Haines seeks his first title at 174 after winning at 157 pounds a year ago. Keegan O’Toole of Missouri, who beat the Nittany Lion back in December, is the top seed and on the other half of the bracket. Most believe they’ll meet again here in the finals. The Tiger must contend with some familiar Big Ten faces on his side of the bracket but should cruise into the finals. As for Haines, Oklahoma State’s Dean Hamit, the three seed, will be no easy out in the semifinals if the chalk holds. But, we don’t see anyone else stopping him from getting to that point.

Prediction: Hamiti is wrestling really well. But, it’s hard to see him getting the better of Haines in the semis if they do indeed meet there. Assuming a O’Toole-Haines final, we’re not ready to beat the Nittany Lion to beat the Tiger, however it is of course possible. We give the nod to O’Toole, though, with Haines finishing second.

184 pounds: Graduate senior Carter Starocci

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 33 TJ McDonnell, Oregon State vs. No. 32 Caden Rogers, Lehigh

Weight class breakdown: Starocci seeks a record-setting fifth NCAA title and his first at 184 pounds. We don’t see anyone standing in his way of making it to Saturday night’s final. The other half of the bracket offers plenty of intrigue. No. 2 Parker Keckeisen of Northern Iowa projects to meet No. 3 Max McEnelly, a freshman from Minnesota, in that side’s semifinal. McEnelly became the first wrestler to take Starocci down this season back at Big Tens before the Nittany Lion rolled to his latest conference crown.

Prediction: There is no doubt to us that Starocci will make history. The only question is how many bonus points he racks up for Penn State in the team race along the way.

197 pounds: Penn State redshirt freshman Josh Barr

Seed: No. 4

Expected opening opponent: No. 29 Tucker Hogan, Lock Haven

Weight class breakdown: Cael Sanderson said last week and this week that Barr will be ready to scrap in Philadelphia. We will certainly take his word for it. But, without seeing the Penn State redshirt freshman in action since he hurt his left leg at Big Tens, it’s a bit difficult to know if his “scrapping” will be impacted in any way, shape, or form. Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas is the top seed and likely semifinal opponent if the chalk holds. They are 1-1 against each other this year with both matches decided after regulation. On the bottom half, Stephen Buchanan of Iowa and AJ Ferrari of Cal State Bakersfield are the Nos. 2-3 seeds, respectively, and would meet in that side’s semifinal if the seeds hold.

Prediction: Barr has the tools to win this bracket. But, I have him losing to Cardenas in a thrilling semifinal and ultimately finishing fourth. The Wolverine ends up facing the Hawkeye Buchanan in the final, and it’s Buchanan who ends up taking the crown.

285 pounds: Graduate enior Greg Kerkvliet

Seed: No. 3

Expected opening opponent: No. 30 Sam Mitchell, Wyoming

Weight class breakdown: Gable Steveson is the No. 1 seed and will cruise to the finals on the top half. On the bottom half, Kerkvliet is on a collision course to face No. 2 Wyatt Hendrickson of Oklahoma State in the semifinals. This weight goes through those three grapplers, without question.

Prediction: It’s Steveson’s world and everyone else is living in it until proven otherwise. Kerkvliet finds a way to get to the finals but not solve the Golden Gopher and ultimately finishes second.

NCAA wrestling championships schedule

Thursday:

Noon ET: Pigtails, first round on ESPNU

7 p.m. ET: Second round championship bracket matches and consolation matches and wrestlebacks on ESPN.

Friday:

Noon ET: Quarterfinals and consolation bracket wrestlebacks on ESPNU

8 p.m. ET: Championship semifinals and consolation bracket wrestlebacks on ESPN

Saturday:

11 a.m. ET: Consolation semifinals followed by third, fifth, and seventh places matches on ESPNU

7 p.m. ET: Championship finals on ESPN