Penn State Big Ten wrestling seed projections: Where each of 10 the Lions could start the conference tournament

The Big Ten wrestling tournament takes place March 8-9 on the campus of Northwestern in Evanston, Ill. Penn State will send all 10 starters to the annual event. After being off the mat last week, head coach Cael Sanderson’s team, which already won the conference’s regular season title, will head west later this week aiming to both win as many weight classes as possible and also set themselves up for the best seeds possible at nationals later this month.

“Whatever the coaches say,” graduate senior Beau Bartlett told reporters last week when asked about preparing for Big Tens. “Everyone has mindsets that work for them. At the end of the day, you’ve got to be ready to present your best self when it’s time, whatever that takes. You’ve got to be really happy, really angry, drink three cups of coffee. Whatever you need to present your best self, we’re all going to be doing that.”

Historically, the Big Ten has released pre-seeds on the Monday before the conference tournament. They are then finalized later in the week, rarely with any changes. Before all of that, and with some help from MatScouts and FLO, Blue-White Illustrated is projecting which bracket line each Penn State wrestler could wind up on across the 10 weight classes.

125 pounds: Penn State freshman Luke Lilledahl

After a stellar prep career, Lilledahl’s skills quickly translated to the college level. He was not perfect during the regular season, but close to it, as he finished 15-2. Both losses came during conference action. He was pinned by Ohio State’s Brendan McCrone and lost a 4-1 decision to Rutgers’ Dean Peterson.

MatScouts projection: No. 4 seed
FLO projection: No. 4 seed
BWI take: It’s next to impossible to envision Lilledahl ending up anywhere else. Peterson will be in front of him. So, too, will Purdue’s Matt Ramos. While it’s possible the Penn State wrestler jumps Nebraska’s Caleb Smith for a higher seed due to beating him during the dual meet season, the Cornhusker has the better overall resume. Thus, Lilledahl looks locked into the four seed. That, of course, would put him on the same side of the bracket as Ramos, which would put the two on a consolation course to meet in the semifinals.

133 pounds: Nittany Lions junior Braeden Davis

Many of the seeding situations are straightforward for Penn State wrestlers. That’s not necessarily the case with Davis. He missed some Big Ten matches due to injury, and is just 8-3 on the season.

MatScouts projection: No. 6 seed
FLO projection: No. 4 seed
BWI take: Davis ending up somewhere between fourth and sixth feels right. This one will come down to how the coaches assess a weight class that has had all sorts of interesting results during the dual meet portion of the schedule. We’ll flip a coin and slot Davis in at No. 4. Though, nothing would surprise us.

141 pounds: Penn State senior Beau Bartlett

Bartlett is having a great final year at Penn State. He is 18-0, fresh off a win over familiar foe Jesse Mendez of Ohio State, and has beat two other Big Ten wrestlers who will earn top five seeds.

MatScouts projection: No. 1 seed
FLO projection: No. 1 seed
BWI take: There isn’t much thought required here. Bartlett did what he needed to do during the dual meet season to earn the top spot.

149 pounds: Nittany Lions sophomore Shayne Van Ness

Van Ness roared back onto the mat in 2024-2025 after missing almost all of the 2023-2024 season due to injury. However, like at 133, the seeding picture is a tough one to handicap. Van Ness loss to reigning Big Ten champ Ridge Lovett of Nebraska, who lost to Iowa’s Kyle Parco, who Van Ness beat. They will be the top three seeds. What order they come in, however, will be anyone’s guess. Here’s how the round robin played out:

Van Ness lost to Lovett by major decision, beat Parco by major decision

Lovett lost to Parco by decision, beat Van Ness by major decision

Parco beat Lovett by major decision, lost to Van Ness by major decision

MatScouts projection: No. 1 seed
FLO projection: No. 2 seed
BWI take: We don’t see Van Ness falling to number three. Either the win over Parco will be enough for the seeding committee to put him over Lovett, or it won’t be, and Lovett will take the top spot.

157 pounds: Penn State sophomore Tyler Kasak

Kasak, last year’s third place finisher at 149 pounds, moved up one weight class this offseason and has handled it quite fine during the regular season. On the year, he is 15-1, with his only loss coming back forfeit to Maryland’s Ethen Miller.

MatScouts projection: No. 2 seed
FLO projection: No. 2 seed
BWI take: This one is pretty simple. If the seeding committee determine Kasak would have beaten Miller if not for the injury stoppage due to concussion protocol, it could put the Penn State wrestler on the top line. History suggests they likely won’t do that, though, which would leave Kasak at No. 2.

165 pounds: Nittany Lions redshirt sophomore Mitchell Mesenbrink

Mesenbrink finished second at nationals a year ago. He has been hellbent on claiming the top spot ever since. And, he’s been dominant in chasing that goal. He leads the country in technical fall victories and is 19-0 on the year.

MatScouts projection: No. 1 seed
Flo projection: No. 1 seed
BWI take: There is no question that Mesenbrink will be the top seed in this weight class.

174 pounds: Penn State junior Levi Haines

After winning last year’s 157-pound title, Haines made the unusual but not unheard of decision to bump up two weight classes. The new spot in the lineup has fit the Penn State star well. He has just one loss on the year, to the national No. 1 ranked 174-pounder, Keegan O’Toole of Missouri, and that will have no impact on the Big Ten tournament seeding.

MatScouts projection: No. 1 seed
FLO projection: No. 1 seed
BWI take: Haines is the clear cut top dog in this weight class in the Big Ten. He’ll be the No. 1 seed, with many hoping to see a rematch with Buckeye Carson Kharchla, who projects as the No. 2 seed, in the finals.

184 pounds: Nittany Lions graduate senior Carter Starocci

Chasing a historic fifth and final NCAA title after winning four at 174 pounds, Starocci is 18-0 with 17 wins coming by either major decision or something better than that. Only Iowa’s Angelo Ferrari kept his bout with the Penn State star to a decision, losing 3-1.

Matscouts projection: No. 1 seed
FLO projection: No. 1 seed
BWI take: Nothing needs to be written here, but for the sake of consistency, we’ll write that yes, of course Starocci will have the top spot at 184.

197 pounds: Penn State redshirt freshman Josh Barr

Barr beat Lucas Cochran for the right to replace Aaron Brooks at 197 pounds. He is 17-1 on the year with his lone loss coming by decision, 4-1, to Iowa’s Stephen Buchanan. That, of course, will keep the Nittany Lion off the top seed line in Evanston, as it will go to the Hawkeye.

Matscouts projection: No. 2 seed
FLO projection: No. 2 seed
BWI take: All observers will be hoping to see a Barr/Buchanan rematch in the Big Ten finals. Barr will be the No. 2 seed. It would put him on the same side of the bracket as Michigan’s Jacob Cardenas, who he needed tiebreaker two to beat in the regular season.

285 pounds: Nittany Lions senior Greg Kerkvliet

Kerkvliet, the reigning NCAA champ at heavyweight, started the season at No. 1. But, once Minnesota star Gable Steveson returned at the midway point for a final collegiate season, the Penn State standout was knocked down to the two-seed line.

MatScouts projection: No. 2
FLO projection: No. 2
BWI take: Kerkvliet again finds himself needing to beat one of the sport’s most accomplished wrestlers to win both Big Ten and NCAA gold. He’ll get his latest crack at doing so on Sunday afternoon at the conference tournament.