Penn State-Boise State Matchups: Who will have the edge in the Fiesta Bowl?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State and Boise State both arrived in Arizona this past weekend ahead of their College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup at the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. And, both sides have already offered a healthy amount of respect for each other from afar.

“In all three phases, they’re playing their best football,” Broncos coach Spencer Danielson said. “And what they were able to do against SMU on Saturday, I mean, that’s very, very impressive. I mean, about 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, they’re able to rest their guys in a Playoff game. That’s a testament to their team.”

Lions coach James Franklin, like the rest of the country, is impressed with Heisman Trophy runner-up and BSU star running back Ashton Jeanty.

“In any other year, I think the guy wins the Heisman, and you could make the argument that he should have won it this year,” Franklin said. “He is hard to tackle. He is compact, has the ability to run away from you, has the ability to make you miss. They get him involved in the pass game. They get him involved in the run game.”

Penn State is a 10.5-point favorite. Will it have big edges on offense and defense? We dive into the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

Facing windy conditions on a brutally cold day, Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki hoped to build a lead in the first half and then hammer the ground game in the second half against SMU. Thanks to two pick sixes from the defense, everything went as the Lions hoped it would. There will be no such weather issues in Glendale, as State Farm Stadium has a retractable roof, and sunny, dry conditions are expected. That’s bad news for the Broncos. Coordinator Erik Chinander’s defense ranks No. 110 nationally against the pass. Boise State does have a top-25 rush defense. But, Kotelnicki and co., should be able to enforce its will however it chooses to attack the Broncos.

After a quiet day as a pass catcher but a busy one against the Mustangs as a run blocker, we’d expect tight end Tyler Warren to be very involved in this contest when Drew Allar drops back to throw.

Penn State will also have a big advantage on third down: It has the nation’s No. 12 offense when it comes time to move the chains. Boise State’s defense ranks No. 62.

More: It’s Penn State-Boise State in the CFP week: Game time, spread, channel, streaming info, storylines, more

You’ve probably read by now that the Broncos are very good in the havoc department. Their 51 sacks are the second-most nationally and their 104 tackles for loss is fourth. Four of them came against Oregon, but that was before the Ducks offense got on track the way was late in the year. Still, Boise State’s pass rushers have proven they can get home against elite talent. The Penn State offensive line will have to again be at its best.

All told, this feels to us much like the SMU analysis: Boise State will get some stops, but it’s doubtful that it will get enough of them. And, it has among the nation’s fewest forced turnovers, which doesn’t help matters, either.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

There is not much thought required here. You either believe the nation’s No. 7 rush defense will contain the nation’s leader in rushing yards and touchdowns, Ashton Jeanty, or you do not.

The Broncos run an average of 70 plays a game. So far this year 26 of them per contest have been runs for No. 2. Possessions figure to be limited in this game, as both teams are in the back half of the country in plays per second. That means one big Jeanty scoring scamper, which he is capable of, could be problematic for the Lions if the offense is having an off day. Here’s an incredible stat: Jeanty leads the nation on runs from scrimmage of 10 yards through 70 yards. He is also effective as a pass catcher.

The good news for coordinator Tom Allen’s unit, though, is that it ranks in the top 30 when it comes to allowing runs of 10, 20 or 30-plus yards. It has given up a few long runs this season, without question. But, the backbreaking ones have mostly been few and far between. Of course, they haven’t yet faced a talent like Jeanty, either.

More: Fiesta Bowl Preview: Lions haven’t seen a running back like Ashton Jeanty but he hasn’t faced a defense like the Lions

Boise State enters this game with the No. 78 passing offense. The Broncos have the nation’s No. 8 third-down offense, though, opposite a Nittany Lions defense that is No. 27. As you can probably imagine, getting into third-and-manageable situations and allowing Jeanty to do the rest is the name of the game. BSU also has a very good offensive line. It’s No. 14 in both tackles for loss and sacks allowed, which is a positive stat. But, it’s yet to see Abdul Carter and the rest of the Lions’ pass rushers across from them.

Jeanty is going to get his. And, considering how Penn State often has communication and alignment issues on defense early in games, we won’t be surprised if a good chunk of it comes in the first half. But, once Allen’s unit settles in, it’s hard to see one player beating this bunch enough to lead to a loss, even if we’re talking about a superstar like Jeanty.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Numerous teams have had success against Boise State when it comes to facing former Lions coordinator Stacy Collins’ punt and kick coverage teams. Oregon returned one of each for a score. The Broncos are No. 125 with an average of 14.67 yards allowed per punt. And, they are No. 100 in kickoff return yards allowed at 22.33. Penn State hasn’t been special in either department. But, Nick Singleton might have a chance to pop one in this contest.

–Boise State field goal kicker Jonah Dalmas and Penn State field goal kicker Ryan Barker are both 13 of 16 on the year.

–Broncos punter James Ferguson-Reynolds averages 43.8 yards per punt.

Final word on Penn State-Boise State

It does not take a rocket scientist or even anything close to it to write this: If Penn State plays a clean game and keeps Jeanty at least somewhat in check, it will not only win but also cover the double digit spread. It’s not always as easy as boiling a matchup down to its simplest form. But, there is no other conclusion to draw when it comes to this game.