Penn State-Boise State Predictions: Can Nittany Lions contain Ashton Jeanty and advance in College Football Playoff?

Penn State had no problems getting past ACC newcomer SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. Now, following a brief break for Christmas, James Franklin and his squad have arrived in Phoenix, Ariz., to face No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, which this year is a quarterfinal game in the CFP.

Not only did Boise State win the Mountain West Conference this season, but the Broncos went 12-1. Their only loss came against a familiar opponent in Oregon back in Week 2. They even had the lead with 10 minutes left to play, but a 99-yard kick return tied it up for the Ducks and they eventually won the game on a 25-yard field goal as time expired.

The Broncos are led by the nation’s best running back, as junior Ashton Jeanty finished second in Heisman voting after rushing for 2,497 yards this season. He’s currently just 132 rushing yards short of breaking Barry Sanders’ all-time rushing record. However, he’ll have to do it against a Penn State rushing defense that ranks seventh nationally, allowing an average of just 100.4 yards per game.

So, how will the Nittany Lions fare against Jeanty and the Broncos? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 12-2)

There is no mistaking that Boise State played well at Oregon, narrowly losing to the Ducks early in the season. There is also no mistaking that, in Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos have one of the nation’s most talented and productive running backs. For Penn State to feel any differently going into this game would be foolish, and the Nittany Lions do not appear to be falling victim to that trap. 

That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t win this game, though.

Boasting a quarterback who possesses the talent of Drew Allar is a difference-maker. Defensive ends like Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton change things. And just as it was a week ago at Beaver Stadium, the trenches are where games between established, power conference programs and ones like SMU and soon-to-be Boise show up as critical. 

There is little doubt that Jeanty and the Broncos could have early success against a Penn State defense that has, at times, needed a minute to steady itself. Same for a Nittany Lion offense that has gotten better as games progress. But over four quarters, the opportunity for Penn State to exert its physicality and variety of playmaking is likely to come to the forefront. 

Penn State: 34
Boise State: 23

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 14-0)

All eyes this week are on Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, and rightfully so. He’s one of the best players in college football and even his off weeks have ended up in triple-digits. Penn State only allowed one 100-yard rusher all year in USC’s Woody Marks, so something’s gotta give there. The most likely outcome will be Jeanty getting his, which is fine. Boise State has no issues getting him the carries to do so. The defense will have to roll with the inevitable chunks that are coming.

That said, I’m not sure that Jeanty is the outright key to this game. That, to me, is the Broncos’ defense. More specifically, it’s the back seven and their ability to tackle. Boise State’s front line has been very good at orchestrating chaos, with over 100 tackles for loss this season. In fact, they have the Nittany Lions beat in that regard.

Link: Key takeaways from Penn State’s media day session at the Fiesta Bowl

But, if Penn State can get around that — looking at you, Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Tyler Warren — there’s room to run. Boise State is by far the worst tackling team left in the College Football Playoff and one of the worst in the country regardless. If Penn State can break a couple, it can make the Broncos pay.

Penn State’s offensive approach has been more open and certainly more palatable since the end of the season. Will that trend continue in the controlled climate of State Farm Stadium? Andy Kotelnicki and Drew Allar should have more room to play than they did last week in Happy Valley. I’m a little worried that a lot of national pundits are so bullish on the Nittany Lions, but Penn State should have the talent advantage and it has found ways to win this year. Boise State has played with fire a few times, we’ll see if it gets burned on Tuesday.

Penn State: 38
Boise State: 24

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 13-1)

Penn State needs to tackle cleanly for the majority of the game against Boise State. If there’s one Achilles Heel for the Nittany Lions in this game, it will be Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty, who is creating something out of nothing. If they can do that, there’s very little else about the Boise State team that should frustrate James Franklin’s squad.

Let’s start with the defense. It’s fair to expect Penn State to dominate in the trenches and be disruptive against the run. Tackles for loss will be the key, putting Boise State into second or third and long situations. Forcing the offense to pass in obvious passing situations puts this team in a position it’s not comfortable. While Maddux Madsen is a good quarterback, the pure dropback passing game is not a large portion of Boise State’s offense. In many ways, it’s the same formula that Penn State has worked this year.

The Boise State defense is a proud unit that attacks in a similar way to former Penn State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s squad. However, quarterback Drew Allar is excellent at setting protections and understanding where the unblocked pressure will appear. His ability to operate the offense should help neutralize one of the key aspects of this team. From there, it’s about making big plays. Boise State has missed more tackles per opportunity than any defense in the country. When Tyler Warren, Nick Singleton, and Kaytron Allen get to the second level, they need to make the most of the opportunity.

Penn State: 35
Boise State: 21

Matt Herb (Season Record – 13-1)

Except for an October game at UNLV in which he totaled 128 yards on 33 carries, Ashton Jeanty has been all but unstoppable. The Heisman Trophy runner-up has surpassed 200 yards in six games, including a 209-yard outburst against those same Runnin’ Rebels when the teams met again in the Mountain West championship game in December.

Penn State obviously is going to pose a different kind of challenge. In 14 games, the Nittany Lions have allowed only one opposing rusher to top 100 yards, with USC’s Woody Marks totaling 111 on 20 carries in October.

No matter how well Penn State’s defense plays, Jeanty is almost certainly going to surpass Marks’ output. He’s going to get as many carries as the Broncos can give him, and if they have trouble springing him for big runs, they can always throw it to him in the hope of getting him the ball in open space. Though Jeanty hasn’t been a frequent target out of the backfield this year, he does have 77 catches for 840 yards and six touchdowns in his three seasons at Boise State.

Link: Penn State’s defensive DNA may be key to slowing down Ashton Jeanty

The Broncos will absolutely need Jeanty to have a big night in the Fiesta Bowl. With his 2,613 yards from scrimmage, he has accounted for 42.8 percent of Boise State’s total offense. By contrast, the most productive PSU player — tight end Tyler Warren — has accounted for 21 percent of his team’s total offense, with 1,292 yards from scrimmage.

The Nittany Lions’ offensive diversity figures to serve them well in this game. They just have a lot of ways to hurt you when they’re operating at peak efficiency. If the passing game has thawed out after a tough day in frigid conditions against SMU, the Lions should have enough firepower to earn a spot in the semifinals, even if Jeanty does inflict some damage.

Penn State: 31
Boise State: 24

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 14-0)

After listening to Boise State players talk this week, it’s clear that they feel both overlooked and disrespected by outside observers ahead of this matchup. Penn State players are not taking the Broncos lightly, of course. As everyone above noted, Jeanty is going to get his in this game. The key for Penn State is simple: Keep his explosive plays to a minimum and don’t turn the ball over in what figures to be a contest that might be light on possessions. If the Lions can accomplish those two things, they’ll be headed to Miami for a semifinal matchup with either Georgia or Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl.

Penn State: 30
Boise State: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 14-0)

Stopping Ashton Jeanty is obviously where this week’s game plan starts. While I do expect Penn State to have an advantage in the trenches, I also still expect Jeanty to rip off his fair share of explosive runs. He’s done it all year.

But even if he gets a handful of chunk plays, limiting his success early in most drives will prove to be the difference. Penn State’s defense has been pretty good when they’re able to force clear passing situations, and that’s an area where Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen has struggled this year, throwing for just one big-time throw and eight turnover-worthy plays in that scenario throughout the year. In fact, while Madsen has thrown just three interceptions this season, he’s credited with throwing 16 turnover-worthy passes all season. For comparison, Drew Allar has thrown just six turnover-worthy passes. Forcing Madsen to make plays will be key.

Boise State’s corners and edge rushers appear to be pretty solid on paper, but I do believe Penn State can take advantage of the middle of the field. Tight end Tyler Warren was held in check last week, but this should be an opportunity for him to have another big game.

I think we’re going to see some points in this one. It won’t be like the Oregon game, but I expect Allar and the offense to have success. Boise State’s interior defensive line and linebackers have struggled to get off blocks at times, which is why I think Penn State should have success rushing the ball between the tackles. PSU also has more depth on both sides of the ball. I think we’ll eventually see the difference that makes in the second half.

Penn State: 34
Boise State: 21