Penn State-Boise State predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

PHOENIX, Ariz — No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State meet today in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal round matchup at State Farm Stadium in Glendale. The 12-2 Nittany Lions are an 11.5-point favorite and the over/under betting total is 53.5. points. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Boise State

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-22 Penn State victory. That would not be a cover for the Lions but the over would hit.

Sportsline sees a 36-21 Nittany Lions triumph. That’s a pick for the over, as well.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 32-21 Lions win. That’s a prediction for the Lions to win but for Boise State to cover while the under cashes.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 7-point Penn State win. It likes the over, as it calls for 57 total points in the contest.

Lions-Boise State picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News calls for the under to hit as the Lions win 31-21, which means they do not cover the point spread. He writes:

“Boise State is 16-2 S/U since Spencer Danielson took over last season, and those two losses were as an underdog to UCLA in the LA Bowl last season and the Ducks in Week 2. The Nittany Lions were 4-4 ATS when favored by double digits this season. Penn State moves on, but the Broncos hang around longer than the Mustangs did into the second half to pull out the cover.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon calls for a 31-21 Penn State triumph.

“Jeanty totaled 200 yards and three touchdowns in Boise’s earlier loss to Oregon,” he writes. “In the Fiesta Bowl, though, the Broncos need to handle a Penn State defense that has yielded just 3.1 yards per carry. The unit isn’t impenetrable, of course, but Penn State held an explosive SMU offense below 100 rushing yards in last week’s victory. That sturdy PSU defense should be able to limit—not shut down, but contain—Jeanty’s impact and shape the result.”

Kyle Woods from Athlon Sports also predicts a Penn State win but Boise State cover. He has it 31-24 in favor of the Nittany Lions.

“Boise State has already shown this season that it can hang with the best the Big Ten has to offer, in a hostile environment no less,” he writes. “The result of that September game against Oregon — along with Penn State’s recent defeat to the Ducks — bodes well for the Broncos. They might just have the best player on the field in Jeanty, but the Nittany Lions have future NFLers on both sides of the ball who will make their presence felt. Boise State won’t be overmatched on offense, but its defense will eventually wear down.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Boise State

For Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich calls for a 27-17 Penn State victory.

“Penn State wants to cut/paste the SMU code into this game,” he writes. “They don’t need two pick-sixes, but the Nittany Lions would love to put Boise State in some duress. The Broncos have trailed in just 11 percent of their game minutes, rallying for a season-high 14-0 deficit to beat San Jose State. Do they have a comeback quarterback ready to face Penn State’s pass rush? Jeanty’s going to be so much fun to watch. So will Penn State’s Nicholas Singleton, who shines on a fast track as well.”

At The Centre Daily Times, Jon Sauber has it Penn State 38, Boise State 28.

“I don’t think this is going to be a blowout like the SMU game, but I do think Penn State should come away with a victory,” he writes. “There’s a large enough disparity between the PSU offense and Boise State defense that the Nittany Lions should be able to keep with any monstrous performance that Jeanty puts together for the Broncos. He’ll absolutely get his, but Penn State should be able to get enough stops to win comfortably and salt the game away with a long drive late in the fourth quarter.”

Frank Bodani picks it 30-13 in favor of Penn State.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Broncos

Nate Bauer: PSU: 34, Boise State: 23
Sean Fitz: PSU: 38, Boise State: 24
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 35, Boise State: 21
Matt Herb: PSU: 31, Boise State: 24
Greg Pickel: PSU: 30, Boise State: 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 34, Boise State: 21