Penn State bowl possibilities: A week from selection Sunday, where do the Lions stand?

Penn State will not find out its postseason destination until next Sunday. The College Football Playoff committee will release two more sets of rankings. The first reveal comes this Tuesday, and the Lions should be inside the top 10. And, they should remain there once conference champion Saturday concludes and the final top-25 is released on selection Sunday, which this year is Dec. 4.

Being inside the top 10 does not guarantee anyone a particular bowl game. But, it opens the path up to many of them based on how a particular year’s conference tie-ins work between CFP games and regular New Year’s Six games. As we’ll explore below, Penn State sits at the fork of those paths with seven days to wait and see who it will play in addition to when and where.

“Obviously you want to try to go to the biggest games you possibly can go to,” head coach James Franklin said Saturday night after the Lions beat Michigan State 35-16 inside Beaver Stadium.

“I think it’s still important to go to the biggest and the best games you possibly can in the postseason, and whether that is the New Years six bowl game or whatever, there’s still value in it.”

Will the Lions go to a New Year’s Six game for the first time since 2019? National media bowl projections are mostly not out until Monday. But, we can take some educated guesses about where Penn State will be slotted before then.

Will Penn State be in the New Year’s Six mix?

Our belief is that yes, the Lions will be. And, the Cotton Bowl makes the most sense.

This writer believes that the Playoff four will be Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC. That assumes the Trojans beat the Utah Utes, who beat them earlier this year, in the PAC-12 title game next weekend. These teams have been on a different trajectory since they met previously. Andm USC should have won the first meeting of the year. Plus, Utah quarterback Cam Rising seems to be dealing with an injury. Everything points to the Trojans winning and getting in.

TCU is in with or without a win in the Big 12 title game, as far as we’re concerned, and the same goes for Michigan and Georgia, regardless of the outcome in their respective conference title games.

With all that said, if one of these four teams is stunningly blown out and/or suffers an injury to a game-changing player next weekend, then things could align for Ohio State to again make the semifinals which would open up Penn State’s path to the Rose Bowl, in all likelihood. But, we’re still not convinced that Alabama wouldn’t jump the Buckeyes in that particular scenario.

More: Report card: Grading the Nittany Lions’ 35-16 win over Michigan State

The Orange Bowl remains a possibility but it is a somewhat distant third here, from our point of view, simply because of where Alabama and Tennessee are ranked. One of them should be ahead of the Lions and draw Clemson in Miami on Dec. 30. Is it possible Penn State could own a Rose Bowl berth and Ohio State an Organe Bowl opportunity if both miss the CFP? Yes. But, we don’t see it as all that likely. It, frankly, feels more like wishful thinking than anything else at this point.

Put it all together, and that’s why the Cotton is currently the favorite. If it goes there, Penn State would meet the winner of the AAC title game. That is set for Saturday between Tulane and UCF.

What is if is not a New Year’s Six Bowl?

If the Lions somehow manage to not receive a NY6 invite, which is unlikely, they’d go to the Citrus Bowl. It would be a major disappointment for Penn State coming out of a 10-win regular season. The odds are against it, at this point. But, as we saw this past Saturday, anything is possible in the crazy world of college football. Tuesday’s penultimate set of rankings will tell us plenty, though, about where head coach James Franklin’s team is headed.