Penn State bowl possibilities: What Saturday's wild day in college football meant to Lions' postseason options

Penn State had an easy win over Rutgers on Saturday. The Lions overcame a slow start and early Scarlet Knights lead to eventually roll up 436 yards of total offense while holding the hosts to just 167 in a dominating 55-10 win.

“I’ve got a ton of respect for Coach (Greg) Schiano and Rutgers,” Penn State coach James Franklin said following the win. “They play hard. We’re getting better. We’re getting better each week. That’s really your objective is to try to get better every single week – at home, on the road, conference opponents, whatever it may be. I do think we’re doing that. I think we’re getting better each week.

“We got a ton of guys playing, a ton of guys getting reps, which always makes me feel good as a head coach.”

Not every team across the top-25 can say the same. One College Football Playoff contender lost. A few others pulled out nailbiters as enormous favorites. And, a major PAC-12 outcome that happened after many Penn State fans went to bed will shake out this week’s selection committee top-25.

We’re still anywhere from 24-48 hours from national experts releasing their latest bowl projections ahead of the new CFP top-25 on Tuesday night. But, before all of that, we have a sneak peek at what to expect below.

The only thing that we can confidently say at this stage is this: Don’t book any plane tickets or hotel rooms at a bowl game destination just yet. With two weeks to go before selection Sunday, things are as clear as mud in terms of where the Lions could end up. But, here’s the rundown.

Where will Penn State end up in the postseason?

A New Year’s Six bowl is certainly still in play. Penn State has not participated in one of those since 2019. It could find its way into the Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami), Cotton Bowl (Jan. 2, Dallas), or Rose Bowl (Jan. 2, Pasadena, Calif.) based on how things shake out. Let’s break down each scenario:

• The Orange Bowl is probably the longest shot on the board. It pits an ACC school opposite the highest-ranked SEC or Big Ten program available. Right now, it appears that there will be too many SEC teams in front of Penn State to get into this game. Where the selection committee ranks Tennessee after its upset blowout loss to South Carolina is a factor here.

• How could Penn State make the Rose Bowl? It’s simple: Both Ohio State and Michigan end up in the College Football Playoff. A top-four showdown is on deck Saturday. The two sides meet in Columbus for this year’s installment of The Game. If the outcome is close, the loser, which will have one loss, could still get into the final four based on other outcomes. USC and Clemson are two other one-loss teams who will battle for that spot assuming Georgia, the Big Ten champ, and TCU all finish unbeaten to get in.

• The Cotton Bowl is the most likely New Year’s six opportunity for Penn State. It must be the highest-rated CFP top-25 team without a NY6 bowl game slot to get there. Where the Lions compare to Tennessee in this weekend’s rankings also matters here. The same goes for what the committee does with Oregon after it beat Utah in a battle of top-12 teams on Saturday. USC is going to climb in the rankings, too. And Washington is moving up but will still be behind the Lions. All told, though, how spots 7-14 play out will tell us a lot. Whoever goes to the Cotton plays a Group of Five foe, of course. That will either be Tulane or UCF.

Finally, yes, a 10-win Penn State team could still end up out of the NY6 mix. If so, the Lions will be in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 2 in Orlando. Some will call that the most likely scenario this week. Here, we see the Cotton Bowl as the most likely spot, however.

Stay tuned for a roundup of bowl projections from national experts this week plus the latest CFP top-25.