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Penn State bowl projections: Where are the Lions slotted ahead of Week 5?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•09/28/23•

GregPickel

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(Credit: USA Today)

Penn State is one of 27 undefeated college football teams. It is No. 6 in The Associated Press top 25 and No. 7 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The Nittany Lions have the nation’s No. 1 total defense with an average of just 219.5 yards allowed per game. They are No. 33 in total offense and have yet to be seriously challenged in any contest this season.

All of that equates to Week 5 bowl projections matching preseason expectations as September winds to a close. Many saw head coach James Franklin’s team as one that could challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff. That is the ceiling. The team’s projected floor is another New Year’s Six bowl game. Four weeks into the 2023 college football season, that is still the case.

“All of the talk in the Big Ten centers around Michigan and Ohio State,” Barrett Sallee wrote for CBS Sports following the Lions’ 31-0 win over Iowa. “After all, those are the two teams that are consistently in the College Football Playoff discussion in mid-to-late November. It’s time to add Penn State into that mix. The offensive success is a big part of the equation, but the defense has been rock solid so far. The Nittany Lions entered the weekend tied for third in the nation in turnover margin at +7 and increased that number to +11 against the woeful Hawkeyes.

“Penn State is built like the Michigan teams of the last few years and the Georgia teams that utterly dominated and outmanned opponents. That’s not to say that the Nittany Lions are better or more talented than those squads. They have the same kind of identity, though, and they know that it works.”

Here is a closer look at the national media’s latest bowl projections for Penn State ahead of a Week 5 clash with Northwestern.

Penn State bowl projections before Week 5

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: PSU vs. LSU in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30.

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Penn State vs. USC in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1.

Andy Staples, On3: Penn State vs. Texas in the Rose Bowl.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: PSU vs. Alabama in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30.

College Football News: Penn State vs. Texas in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30.

Athlon Sports: PSU vs. Notre Dame in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30.

Saturday Tradition: Penn State vs. Florida State in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1.

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: PSU vs. North Carolina in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30.

Where will the Nittany Lions end up?

For the second week in a row, there were few changes in these very preliminary projections. All still have Penn State outside of the College Football Playoff except for On3’s Andy Staples, who is high on the Lions.

“Penn State QB Drew Allar throwing laser beams in the rain against Iowa’s always-stout defense had to warm the hearts of everyone in Happy Valley,” Staples writes. “Shutting out the Hawkeyes doesn’t necessarily prove defensive dominance, but it probably means the Nittany Lions can slow Ohio State and Michigan’s offenses.”

The Peach Bowl continues to be pushed as a strong possibility among non CFP New Year’s Six options. The Lions facing Notre Dame in Atlanta would be a ratings and fan travel bonanza for both sides. Thus, that is our pick at this juncture. But, it goes without saying that PSU is striving for something greater than that, which is, of course, a spot in the four-team CFP.

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