Penn State-Bowling Green predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — Penn State aims to keep its 12-game winning streak against the Mid-American Conference going today when it hosts Bowling Green at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions are 2-0 all-time against the Falcons. Head coach James Franklin’s team is a 34.5-point favorite ahead of kickoff. The over/under betting total is 49.5 points.

“You look at their talent, and it’s as good as a Penn State team as I’ve seen in a long time,” Bowling Green coach Scot Loeffler said this week, per the Toledo Blade. “They don’t have too many holes at all, if any, and I think [coach James Franklin] has done a super job recruiting, super job developing the team.

“Really well coached, super talented, and they’ll make a run, in my opinion, for the Big Ten championship. I think that’s the type of caliber of team that we’re facing this weekend.”

Penn State is 7-3 against the spread against MAC teams since 2014. Will it cover this week? And will the total go over or under? Our picks roundup takes a closer look.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Bowling Green

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 42-8 win for Penn State. That would not be a cover for the Lions at the current number. It is a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees a 48-9 win on the horizon for Penn State. That’s one pick for a cover and another for the over.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 40-9 Lions win. That’s another BGSU cover call and a pick for the under.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 38.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and 48 total points. So, the computers are split on who covers and the total.

Lions-Falcons picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of the Sporting News calls for a 41-17 Nittany Lion triumph. That’s an over pick but a cover call for the visitors.

“This line has jumped 2.5 points from its open after the Nittany Lions’ impressive victory against West Virginia in Week 1,” Bender writes. “James Franklin is 10-0 S/U against MAC schools, but the Nittany Lions have won just four of those games by more than 35 points. Bowling Green has an experienced quarterback in Connor Bazelak, who played at Missouri and Indiana. The Falcons have lost their four games to Power 4 opponents by 22.5 points. Sneaky cover here?”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon envisions a 44-10 Nittany Lions win.

“Penn State played a very impressive game in Morgantown to roll West Virginia in Week 1,” he writes. “If the Nittany Lions keep that up, they’ll be contending for a trip to the College Football Playoff.”

Last but not least, Pete Fiutak at College Football News calls for a 41-10 Nittany Lions victory.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Bowling Green

At PennLive, its coverage team unanimously calls for the Nittany Lions to win in State College. However, only one of their four-man picks crew is calling for the home team to cover.

“Penn State is a five-touchdown favorite for a reason. Bowling Green isn’t Delaware. But I don’t think the Falcons are good enough to give the Nittany Lions a scare, either,” Johnny McGongial writes. He predicts a 49-7 final.

“I expect Penn State to coast by the end of this one. Perhaps we’ll see some freshmen — Quinton Martin, Ethan Grunkemeyer, etc. — playing in the fourth quarter.”

Mark Wogenrich of SI picks Penn State to win a tight 45-6 in favor of the Lions.

“How can Penn State get better Saturday? By expanding the pass game to target more receivers, reduce the number of pre-snap penalties it committed against West Virginia (six) and kicking the ball better,” he writes. “Also, the Nittany Lions should keep the big-play enterprise going, with quarterback Drew Allar continuing to look downfield. Also, we should be counting reserve snaps in the fourth quarter. Do the freshman running backs see action? Will quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer get a series? “

Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record calls for a 48-10 PSU triumph. And, Jon Sauber of the Centre Daily Times has PSU 52, Bowling Green 7.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Falcons

Nate Bauer: Penn State: 63, Bowling Green: 7
Sean Fitz: PSU: 49, BGSU: 10
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 51, Bowling Green: 10
Matt Herb: PSU: 42, BGSU: 13
Greg Pickel: Penn State: 50, Bowling Green: 7
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 48, BGSU: 10