Scouting the Spread: Penn State football a big favorite against Maryland
Penn State Nittany Lions football will strive to snap a three-game losing streak next weekend in College Park, where it takes on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Nittany Lions opened as an 11-point favorite on Sunday according to Circa Sports, and that line sits at 10.5 points on BetRivers as of mid afternoon on Monday.
Interestingly, this is the first time all season that Penn State is favored for a road game.
The Nittany Lions were underdogs in Week One when they beat Wisconsin to begin the season. On the road in Iowa City, they were slight underdogs and failed to cover. Penn State entered last Saturday’s game at Ohio State as an 18.5-point underdog but covered rather comfortably despite losing by two scores.
On the season, the Nittany Lions now sit at 5-3 both overall and against the spread.
The Terrapins, also at 5-3, are 3-5 against the spread. They beat Indiana at home last week, but failed to cover the 5.5-point line.
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The case for Penn State to cover
If you’re a Penn State fan, you saw some corrections to plenty of the issues that presented themselves in the disastrous loss to Illinois two weeks ago on Saturday against Ohio State.
Penn State’s run defense was much, much better against TreVeyon Henderson, who came into the week as the most efficient starting running back in college football. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry in this game — still nothing to sneeze at, but a far cry from his 8.8-yard average entering the game.
More importantly, quarterback Sean Clifford looked better physically, and James Franklin said he saw the same thing postgame. Clifford played well against the Buckeyes, and, should he do the same against the Terps, it might be difficult for them to cover.
Generally, you would just expect Penn State to have more talent than its neighbors to the south.
It has recruited at a much higher level consistently for years, and there has been nothing to change that recently. When these two teams take the field on Saturday, Penn State will have the better athletes.
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The Nittany Lions have won their last two trips to College Park 59-0 and 66-3.
The case for Maryland to cover
The lowest point of Penn State’s season in 2020 may have been a decisive home loss to Maryland, which saw the Terps turn the Nittany Lions over three times on their way to a 35-19 win.
Clearly, this is a group that will feel as though it can hang with Penn State. Why wouldn’t the Terps feel that way? All the proof they need is right in front of them.
And, looking at some of the yardage numbers, the gap between the Nittany Lions and Terps when it comes to total yardage this season really hasn’t been that wide — or even present, for that matter.
Maryland, on average, gains 56 more yards per game on offense than Penn State does, and allows 60 more yards per game on defense than the Nittany Lions.
The point totals on defense are drastically different, however, with Penn State allowing 17 points per game to Maryland’s 30.4 — something that can be attributed to the Nittany Lion red zone defense.
Still, 10.5 points is a healthy cushion to hand a team playing at home, and those total yardage numbers could be enough to sway bettors toward the Terrapins.
