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ESPN's football power index metric ranks Penn State inside top-15, predicts record

IMG_1698 5 (1)by:David Eckert•04/14/22•

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Parker-Washington-On3-3
Penn State receiver Parker Washington. (Photo Credit: BWI/Steve Manuel)

ESPN released its college football power index (FPI) metric on Wednesday afternoon, and the algorithm once again likes Penn State.

The Nittany Lions come in at No. 12 in the preseason FPI. Penn State is the third-highest ranked Big Ten team, behind Ohio State (second) and Michigan (seventh).

Here’s a look at the top-25 as it stands:

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Georgia
  4. Clemson
  5. Notre Dame
  6. Texas
  7. Michigan
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Pitt
  10. Auburn
  11. LSU
  12. Penn State
  13. Oklahoma State
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Utah
  16. Michigan State
  17. Ole Miss
  18. Miami
  19. Baylor
  20. Kentucky
  21. Wisconsin
  22. UNC
  23. Oregon
  24. Mississippi State
  25. Florida

This is where FPI ranks each Big Ten program:

2. Ohio State
7. Michigan
12. Penn State
16. Michigan State
21. Wisconsin
35. Nebraska
38. Iowa
40. Minnesota
43. Maryland
44. Purdue
66. Indiana
73. Illinois
82. Northwestern
83. Rutgers

And this is how FPI rates the programs on Penn State’s nonconference schedule:

10. Auburn
96. Central Michigan
124. Ohio

ESPN defines FPI as a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the predictor of a team’s performance going forward.” Its primary use is as a means to predict games.

The preseason ratings are compiled using four factors: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.

The Nittany Lions concluded last season ranked 17th by the metric.

According to FPI, Penn State’s projected win total for the reason is 8.3.

The analytic gives the Nittany Lions a 97.4 percent chance of winning at least six games, and a 6.6 percent chance of winning the Big Ten East.

Penn State’s Brenton Strange talks young TEs

When fourth-year Penn State tight end Brenton Strange looks at winter early-enrollee Jerry Cross, he sees a player with a football background he can identify with.

Strange is a native of Parkersburg, West Virginia, and Cross comes from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Both places, Strange said, can leave something to be desired when it comes to the quality of the high school football.

“Jerry, I think he’s a lot like me in certain ways. In Milwaukee, the football’s not the best. In West Virginia, the football’s not the best,” Strange said. “So you come in and you’re kind of new to everything and how things are run.”

As the most experienced player in Penn State’s tight end room, it’s Strange’s job to help bring Cross along.

He’s a player who certainly has the physical gifts. At 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, Cross came into Happy Valley as a four-star prospect according to the On3 Consensus, and the No. 12 tight end in the Class of 2022.

He is not, however, the only talented young tight end in that room.

Second-year TE Khalil Dinkins also fits that description.

Dinkins saw almost no action in 2021, appearing in one game and playing only a pair of snaps.

Strange said the improvement is tangible with Dinkins this spring.

“He’s made tremendous strides from where he was last year,” Strange said. “I can see it. Practice to practice, he’s doing things that he might have messed up on previously and perfecting those, getting better at his craft.

“I definitely think both of those guys have a great future and the tight end room will be in good hands.”

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