Looking ahead: Penn State braces for visit from Michigan

Penn State pulled out of its tailspin on Saturday with a 31-14 victory at Maryland. The question now: Can it regain some altitude? 

The Nittany Lions will welcome Michigan to Beaver Stadium on Saturday. The Wolverines went into this past weekend’s action ranked seventh in the College Football Playoff standings and are still in contention for the Big Ten East Division title coming off a 29-7 victory over Indiana on Saturday night in Ann Arbor. 

A win over Michigan might not restore all of the luster that was lost amid the Lions’ three-game losing streak. But it would enhance their postseason resume now that they’re officially bowl-eligible, and it would open some eyes nationally.     

The Wolverines improved to 8-1 overall and 5-1 in conference play with their win over Indiana. The Hoosiers were playing without their top two quarterbacks, and Michigan took full advantage, holding them to 195 total yards. 

Michigan boasts the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the Big Ten at 17.1 points per game. Only once have the Wolverines given up more than 30 points this season. That was in a 37-33 loss to Michigan State, and the Spartans did most of their damage on the ground, with Kenneth Walker III totaling 197 yards and five touchdowns.  

Michigan’s defensive prowess poses some big concerns for the Nittany Lions. PSU has moved the ball sporadically and has been almost entirely dependent on its passing game. 

The running game has just not been there for PSU, as evidenced by the Lions’ average of 106.4 yards per game, 12th-best in the Big Ten. As coach James Franklin acknowledged after Penn State gained 93 rushing yards on 33 carries against Maryland, “We continue to invest in it, [but] it’s still not where we want it to be.”

The 31 points that Penn State scored against the Terrapins were the most it has totaled against any Big Ten opponent this season, but that figure was boosted by a defensive touchdown. 

The one facet of PSU’s offense that was working flawlessly was the Sean Clifford-to-Jahan Dotson combo, which produced 11 catches for a school-record 242 yards and three touchdowns. But even with the senior wideout enjoying a career day, Franklin said he told offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich to continue mixing in the running game wherever possible. 

“It helps us with our protection,” Franklin said. “It helps our O-line take those body shots on the defense, and I thought we had some opportunities tonight.”

Those pass-protection concerns are going to be magnified next Saturday, with Michigan fielding two of the Big Ten’s top defensive ends in Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Hutchinson, a likely first-round draft pick next spring, had four quarterback hurries against the Hoosiers, while Ojabo had two hurries and a sack that resulted in a Michigan fumble recovery. “Pressure on their QB was a huge factor” in the game, Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh said afterward.  

While Michigan won handily on Saturday night, the Nittany Lions’ last two regular-season opponents lost this weekend. 

Rutgers was thrashed by visiting Wisconsin, 52-3. The Scarlet Knights have been competitive at times during the Big Ten season, falling by just seven points at Michigan and defeating Illinois on the road in late October. But the game against the Badgers was a wipeout. Wisconsin totaled 579 yards while holding Rutgers to 207. 

And while the Badgers were romping in Piscataway, Michigan State was watching Purdue put a damper on its dream season with a 40-29 upset in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers did it the way Penn State will probably try to do it on Nov. 27: by relying almost exclusively on the passing game and keeping Walker from running wild. Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed 40 of 54 passes for 536 yards, and the Boilermakers’ defense held Walker to 136 yards on 22 carries. 

To defeat Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State, Penn State will need a hugely productive performance from its passing game, which means it will need big things from Dotson. The Lions’ upcoming opponents may not take as many risks as Maryland did in the secondary, but they don’t need an invitation to try and get the ball in the hands of their standout receiver. 

“Each week our plan is to get Jahan Dotson as many touches as possible,” Franklin said. “That’s what you have to do with your best players, and he came through for us time and time again tonight.”