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As Penn State players head to the NFL Combine, how many will ultimately be drafted in April?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel03/01/22

GregPickel

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Jahan Dotson has reportedly signed his rookie contract with the Washington Commanders. (Steve Manuel/BWI)

Eight former Penn State football players are set to participate in the NFL Combine over the next handful of days.

The annual scouting extravaganza in Indianapolis features on-field work Thursday-Sunday. Some players, like receiver Jahan Dotson, are already in town going through the off-field part of the festivities. It is the latest major milestone on the path to the draft. Pro Days, individual workouts, and more interviews will follow for pro football hopefuls. And, some who aren’t in Indy will still end up being picked. Conversely, a few who are will end up as undrafted free agents.

At any rate, The Draft Network seven-round simulator has an early look at how many Lions could go off the board. After running the simulator on Tuesday, here’s who could go, where they might end up, and what surprised us about the final result.

Only one Nittany Lion is seen as a Day 1 pick

Every year, the early mock drafts, which come out during the fall, highlight players who could end up as future first-round picks.

They do not all end up staying in that category, however.

One constant for Penn State, however, has been Dotson. There is universal agreement that the Pennsylvania native helped himself immensely by returning for a final season in blue and white. He caught 91 passes for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns as a senior while cementing himself as a top-50 prospect in this year’s draft.

It is worth noting, however, that while many media mocks have him going within the first 32 selections, some have him heading off the board early in Round 2. As for our TDN simulation, it slotted Dotson to the Detroit Lions with the last pick of the first round. The NFC North franchise has two first-round picks and many needs. Receiver ranks near the top. So, Dotson landing there would make sense. But, the Lions could also trade back, depending on how things shake out between their first selection at two and second at No. 32.

TDN sees three Penn State players going on Day 2

Our simulation slotted three former Penn State players as Day 2 selections. Remember that Rounds 2-3 are held that day.

The first one is no surprise. Safety Jaquan Brisker has been considered a fringe Round 1 pick. So, the TDN machine having him at No. 40 overall to the Denver Broncos should not be shocking. The AFC franchise has lots of needs, however, especially on defense.

Next up is end Arnold Ebiketie to the New York Jets with the No. 69 selection. That would make the All-Big Ten defender a Round 3 choice. It would also keep Ebiketie in the Mid-Atlantic, which would be cool for the Maryland native.

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Finally, we get to what many will likely call the unexpected part of this list. TDN’s simulator has tackle Rasheed Walker landing in Round 3, as well. It slots him to Cincinnati Bengals with the 95th pick. Anyone who watched quarterback Joe Burrow somehow endlessly overcome sacks and hits in the NFL Playoffs is aware of why offensive line help is needed. Fans may question this, but Walker is the type of player who left school early despite questions about him doing so who could ultimately go earlier than expected. If so, this seems like a reasonable fit.

The rest of the list, plus our takes

Three more former Penn State players made the cut. Do note that this simulated run will undoubtedly change in the weeks and months ahead. That’s especially true once Combine and Pro Day data is added.

At any rate, our current TDN simulator results had end/linebacker Jesse Luketa landing with the Oakland Raiders in Round 4 at No. 124 overall. Then, it had linebacker Brandon Smith, who left school early like Walker, going two picks later to the Baltimore Ravens. The Virginia native would reunite with Odafe “Jayson” Oweh if so.

Finally, linebacker Ellis Brooks went off the board in Round 7 to the Washington Commanders with the No. 224 overall selection. Brooks is a fringe draft prospect, but someone could take a chance on him late.

As for the surprises, Walker going where he did was one, and Tariq Castro-Fields being an undrafted free agent according to TDN was another. He is at the Combine, of course. Testing well could secure him a slot in one of the later rounds.

We could also see Smith sliding deeper into Day 3, though someone will definitely fall in love with his athleticism and potential. Finally, Dotson and Brisker are definitely on the late Day 1/early Day 2 cusp.

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