Penn State - Arkansas Predictions: Will the Lions finish 2021 with a win?

Penn State and its fans were surprised when the Nittany Lions ultimately earned an invite to the Outback Bowl.

After a 7-5 regular season, all signs were pointing toward Penn State playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, but it will instead face an Arkansas squad that’s coming off its best season in a decade.

After so many bowl games against SEC opponents, it’s not often that Penn State plays a team it has never faced before, but Arkansas is one of them. In the SEC, the other two schools are Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

However, the story of this game, from a Penn State perspective, is most certainly how the Lions’ young players respond following a slew of opt-outs and injuries. Will they be able to rally and take down an Arkansas squad that lobbied to play in a New Year’s Day bowl?

Our staff gives their thoughts below.

Nate Bauer (8-4)

How do you pick a game in which the players that have been playing all season are no longer around? In one sense, it’s a little like making a pick for the Wisconsin game to start the season, with the Nittany Lions coming off their disaster of a 2020 campaign and the Badgers not a whole lot better.

Given Penn State’s struggles to get over the hump this season against strong opponents, I’m leaning toward an Arkansas win. But the manner in which these two teams get there figures to be plodding and disjointed in light of everything we’ve seen to date this year.

Arkansas: 27

Penn State: 24

Greg Pickel (10-2)

Penn State was installed as a favorite over Arkansas when the Outback Bowl matchup between the two sides was announced.

Now, it’s the Razorbacks who are small favorites three days before their meeting at Raymond James Stadium.

Opt-outs are at the heart of it. The Lions are down five starters on defense, first-team left tackle Rasheed Walker, and star receiver Jahan Dotson. It’s hard to think of a way for James Franklin’s team to overcome all of that to win. Maybe a healthy Sean Clifford and the offense can do enough, but it’d be a surprise.

Arkansas: 34

Penn State: 24

David Eckert (8-4)

The absence of Jahan Dotson on offense will grab the headlines, but I’m concerned about the sheer volume of opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball for the Nittany Lions here against a uniquely physical Arkansas offense.

Penn State is going to have to score some points, and while the Nittany Lions have done so on occasion this season, I have little confidence that they’ll score enough to win this game without their best player on offense.

Arkansas: 30

Penn State: 21

Matt Herb (10-2)

No Dotson … no Brisker … no Ebiketie … no Brooks … no Smith. I could go on. With so many key players skipping the Outback Bowl, and so many less-proven guys having to step in, this feels more like the first game of the 2022 season than the last game of 2021.

Maybe the suddenly youthful Nittany Lions will rise to the occasion and go into the offseason on a hopeful note. Arkansas has a key opt-out, too, with receiver Treylon Burks skipping the game, so I definitely wouldn’t rule out a happy ending to PSU’s up-and-down 2021 campaign.

But I think in the end, the most likely scenario is that the Razorbacks capitalize on Penn State’s defensive losses and use their ground game, which is among the better ones in the SEC, to secure a victory.

Arkansas: 31

Penn State: 21

Ryan Snyder (9-3)

Where do we start with this one?

No Dotson? Check. Missing multiple leaders on defense? Check. A defensive line that will look completely different from a few months ago? Major check.

That’s what I think will be the biggest issue here. Parker Washington will find ways to make plays, but the defensive front seven for Penn State will feature quite a few players who have had limited success so far.

Arkansas finished the season second in the SEC in rushing yards, and I expect Sam Pittman to really challenge that group.

The Razorbacks will also be the more motivated side. This is Arkansas’ first bowl game in five years, and its first New Year’s Day bowl in a decade.

And yet, with all that said, the spread remains Arkansas -1.5 or -2 depending on the book. I think it’ll climb closer to 3 come kickoff, so if you want to bet the Lions, hold off. With that said, I’d advise against it.

Arkansas: 28

Penn State: 21