Mailbag: How many players can Penn State sign in the Class of 2023?

Penn State head coach James Franklin and his assistant coaches will make their way back to State College this evening for tomorrow’s junior day. Nearly the entire staff has been on the road all week, and that’ll continue again next week before the contact period ends Jan. 30.

As for today’s recruiting mailbag, the Class of 2023 remains a popular topic. Many have asked in recent weeks just how big the class could be, so we’ll start with that.

Can you breakdown your estimate of how Penn State’s Class of 2023 will be filled? – VaDave4PSU

I’ll start this by saying that whatever estimates I give now are pretty much guaranteed to change. We discuss numbers every year after the previous class signs, and every year those numbers shift, oftentimes multiple times. Outgoing transfers after spring practice are still likely to come for Penn State and so many others. That impacts the upcoming class more than incomings, although if they bring in underclassmen, that could impact it.

Here’s what I’m thinking currently.

QB – 1

RB – 1 or 2

WR – 3

TE – 2

OL – 4 or 5

DT – 2

DE – 2 or 3

LB – 2 or 3

CB – 2 or 3

Saf. – 2 or 3

Ath. – 1 or 2

One of the first things you’ll notice is two at the tight end position. Right now, I have Neeo Avery and Joey Schlaffer as true tight end in this class. I’ve heard more and more talk in recent weeks that Mathias Barnwell has interest in playing defensive line. Avery could potentially play defensive end, but it seems like tight end is what he prefers. He told me he leans tight end in a previous interview, too.

“I just want to play wherever I have more impact. That’s most important,” Avery said in an interview in November. “With Penn State, program-wise, all of them go to the league. It’s been like that for many years, so if [Penn State] were to be my decision, I would probably lean that way.”

Outside of that position, I would probably lean towards just one running back after taking two last year. It’ll likely by five defensive backs total, so whatever they do at corner will probably impact safety and vice versa. I’ll always add an athlete scholarship or two when I do projections. I actually switched Barnwell to athlete a few weeks ago if you haven’t noticed.

But overall, I think 23 or so is a good number. It’s hard for me to see this class being a full 25 at the moment, but it shouldn’t be a class that drops below 20. Somewhere in the middle, 22 or 23, makes the most sense.

But again, it’s early.

Does Franklin finally stack two top 10 classes back to back? – psu2013

I’ll start by saying this: for it to happen, Alex Birchmeier will likely have to be a five-star by the time it’s all said and done. That will have a big impact.

Right now, he’s just outside at No. 31 overall, but I do think there’s a chance it could happen. But if he doesn’t get that fifth star, I’m not sure I see enough five-star talent who are realistically favoring Penn State currently for it to reach that high.

Look at the current top 10 for the Class of 2022 in our On3 Consensus team rankings. You’ll notice every school but Oklahoma and Notre Dame has at least one five-star committed. The reason the Irish and Sooners are able to crack it without a five-star is because their four-star ratio is pretty crazy. Notre Dame has 19 four-stars out of 21 commits. Oklahoma is similar: 15 out of 17.

Penn State already has three, three-star players committed in 2023, and more will surely follow. Now, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if some of those guys move up over time, but it’s hard for me to see the Nittany Lions hitting at a 90 percent four-star ratio this upcoming year.

I think for Penn State to crack the top 10 in today’s recruiting climate, it more than likely requires not one, but two five-star commitments. That’s mainly because the very best players are usually going to the same seven or eight schools each year. Every year is different, but even landing just one elite player wouldn’t guarantee they make it.

When I look over the current crop of players who either hold a five-star rating already or are just outside, it feels like Dante Moore, Jason Moore, Chase Bisontis, Nyckoles Harbor and Joenel Aguero will have a big impact on their chances. Again, this will move around a bit, but out of that group, I’d say Moore is most realistic, and I’d probably lean Aguero as their next best chance now that he’s back in the northeast. There’s been some positive talk about Aguero’s relationship with Penn State in recent weeks.

It’s certainly possible that they can land one or two of those guys, but I really think Birchmeier is the key to all of this. Tackles usually get the nod for a fifth star ahead of interior linemen, but he’s a hell of a player and someone who deserves serious consideration for it. What happens with him will have a big impact.

I really thought Andrew Rappleyea was the type of TE we look for, in the mold of Freiermuth, etc. Did we pass on him? With Barnwell projected as a possible candidate to slide to OT and Avery possibly projecting better on defense, even with his commitment to UM, is he still in play? – Pocono Lion

I was watching Andrew Rappleyea very closely over the past few weeks. I actually was planning to put in a crystal ball for him about a month ago. The only reason I held off was because I wanted to be respectful to him after a talk we had. Happy I did.

On top of that, I was told by multiple sources that he was seriously considering a Penn State commitment over the past couple of weeks. With that said, I also knew that Avery was higher on the staff’s board. I’ve considered Avery Penn State’s top tight end target for awhile now. I thought that was the case back in the summer, but after Barnwell committed in September, sources made that clear to me.

Now, of course, Rappleyea wasn’t too far behind him, as we learned. I don’t know this for a fact, but I would assume Penn State informed Avery that he needs to seriously consider making a move when he did or risk getting shut out. That happens just about every year at one position or another.

With that said, Avery did tell me during the season that he wanted to wrap up his recruitment this winter. He gave me the mindset that January or February was realistic, so it’s not like he had to make major changes to preferred timeline.

As for Rappleyea, I don’t get the vibe that he’s someone who will end up decommitting down the road. I’m sure Penn State would come calling if something changed with their current class, but for now, I don’t see him as someone who would switch from Penn State to Michigan. PSU had its chance to take him. I think they simply wanted Avery more.

Both are great players though who have the potential to have successful collegiate careers.

Also, I noted this above, but I’m hearing more and more talk about Barnwell playing defensive line over offensive tackle.