Penn State football: The ultimate fans rooting guide for conference championship weekend

Penn State will soon learn where it will play in the postseason. The Nittany Lions are No. 8 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and 10-2. But, they’re home on conference championship weekend as Michigan beat both it and Ohio State to play Purdue in the Big Ten title game.

Even though that is the case, the Lions look to be locked into a New Year’s Six game, which carries plenty of weight and significance still, even if only four teams make the Playoff.

“Obviously you want to try to go to the biggest games you possibly can go to,” head coach James Franklin said a week ago. “I think it’s still important to go to the biggest and the best games you possibly can in the postseason, and whether that is the New Years six bowl game or whatever, there’s still value in it.”

Our guide to conference championship weekend breaks down what each game means to Penn State’s postseason possibilities.

Where does Penn State stand in the bowl picture to start the weekend?

It’s been a very interesting week on this front. Bowl projections on Sunday and Monday slotted the Lions to the Cotton Bowl. However, as the week progressed, reports, including ones from The Athletic and The Action Network, said that the Rose Bowl would likely take Penn State over Ohio State, even if the No. 5 Buckeyes end up as the highest-ranked Big Ten team that is not in the Playoff.

“I’m projecting the Rose Bowl takes Penn State instead of an Ohio State team that would have been making its second consecutive Rose Bowl trip (both off losses to Michigan) and third appearance in five years,” Brett McMurphy wrote for The Action Network.

“The Granddaddy of Them All wants some new blood and goes with the Nittany Lions.”

Not every pundit has flipped their pick. But, many have leading up to today.

Focusing on the PAC-12, Big Ten title games

There are two ways of looking at how things will play out.

The first is that the reports are wrong and that the Rose Bowl will take Ohio State no matter what. That seems extremely unlikely at this point. That is so even if the title games chalk out and Georgia, Michigan, USC, and TCU all win, which would leave the Buckeyes at No. 5 and Orange Bowl bound if Penn State is picked by the Rose Bowl. There are too many connected people, including ones here at BWI, who hear that the Lions to Pasadena are set if the Buckeyes miss the Playoff.

If they make it, then the Lions are almost certainly headed to California, of course. That would mean, in all likelihood, that the Wolverines won while TCU or USC lost and fell out of the top four. That seems unlikely, even if one of them loses in the Big 12 or PAC-12 title games, respectively.

Let’s throw out a wild card: What if Purdue beats Michigan? Jerry Palm of CBS Sports reports that the Rose Bowl may not take the Boilermakers anyway, even if every available Big Ten champ has played in the ‘Granddaddy of Them All’ dating back to 1945. However, the game’s contract might require it to do so.

More: Which Penn State players made one of the Big Ten all-conference teams on offense?

So, Friday, in particular, may come down to simply an opponent watch for Penn State fans.

Three-loss Utah, who is USC’s opponent in the PAC-12 title game, is No. 11, while two-loss Washington is No. 12. Could the Huskies jump the Utes and take the conference’s Rose Bowl spot if Utah loses in blowout fashion to the Trojans? It’s possible, but by no means a guarantee. Conversely, what if Utah wins? USC could still have a Playoff spot. If not, the committee will have to decide if a USC team that lost twice to Utah this season deserves a Rose Bowl invitation more than the team that beat it twice.

Either way, a very interesting selection Sunday is on tap to see who the PAC-12 sends to Pasadena.

Can Penn State fall out of the Rose Bowl?

Of course, it can. As noted above, this is all well-reported speculation. It all makes sense, but is not written in pen.

The Cotton Bowl is the next most likely destination for the Lions if chaos ensues. If it goes there, it would face the winner of Tulane and UCF, who meet in the AAC title game at 4 p.m. Saturday. The Knights would likely be the more entertaining matchup.

What is the best outcome for Penn State?

This is subjective, of course. Some think that the Cotton Bowl is a lose-lose in the sense that if Penn State crushes a Group of Five opponent, it merely did what it was supposed to. But, if it loses, then it’s a bad look. However, some fans might find it easier to get to Dallas as opposed to California.

What’s our pick? Penn State in the Rose Bowl opposite USC or Washington. The game puts the Lions on one of the postseason’s biggest stages against a marquee opponent.

Share your choice on The Lions Den message board.

Conference title games time and TV schedule

Not all have an impact on the Lions, of course. But here is the full list:

Friday, Dec. 2

Conference USA: North Texas vs. UTSA, 7:30, CBS Sports Network

PAC-12: Utah vs. USC, 8 p.m. FOX

Sat., Dec. 3

Big 12: Kansas State vs. TCU, Noon, ABC

MAC: Toledo vs. Ohio, Noon, ESPN

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina vs. Troy, 3:30 p.m. ESPN

AAC: Tulane vs. UCF, 4 p.m., ABC

Mountain West: Fresno State vs. Boise State, 4 p.m., FOX

SEC: LSU vs. Georgia, 4 p.m. CBS

ACC: Clemson vs. North Carolina, 8 p.m., ABC

Big Ten: Purdue vs. Michigan, 8 p.m. FOX