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Penn State hits top five in The Athletic's 2023 preseason college football rankings

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•06/29/23•

GregPickel

Penn State HC James Franklin
Brian Rothmuller | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Buzz continues to build around the Penn State football program as camp approaches. The Athletic’s data-driven preseason rankings from Austin Mock are the latest passengers on the hype train. His model ranks head coach James Franklin’s fifth overall in its initial top 25 ahead of the 2023 season. It pits the Lions behind Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, and Ohio State, respectively, but ahead of every other conference or non-conference foe it will face this season.

Before diving into why Penn State ranks inside the top five, Mock writes that the model works as follows:

“My model takes in play-by-play data from every game but also factors in returning production, recruiting rankings and transfers. For now, it relies on projections, but as the season starts, those games will become a more important factor in the formula.”

Using that data as a means to simulate the season, The Athletic model gives Penn State 9.9 projected wins, which would put it over the 9.5 win total set by Vegas oddsmakers earlier this year. Additionally, it gives the team a 15 percent chance of winning the Big Ten.

“Michigan and Ohio State are the two favorites in the Big Ten this season, but don’t sleep on the Nittany Lions,” Mock writes. “They’ll once again boast one of the best defenses in all of America and also one of the more dynamic rushing attacks with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. If Drew Allar settles in under center, Penn State will also have a well-rounded, explosive offense.

“Last year the Nittany Lions went 11-2 and had a lead against Ohio State in the fourth quarter. If they can find a way to win at least one of the games against Michigan or Ohio State, they should be 11-1 and eyeing their first College Football Playoff berth.”

Penn State preseason outlook

Media polls across the country think Penn State is a top 10 team at worst and top five at best entering the season. USA Today and CBS Sports still have the program ranked highest. They put it at No. 4 in their post-spring top 25s.

“One area where Penn State has made huge gains in the past several seasons is on the offensive line, seemingly an area of concern throughout coach James Franklin’s tenure,” the USA Today team of Paul Myerberg and Erick Smith write. “Led by All-America left tackle Olu Fashanu, this year’s group has a case for being counted among the Big Ten’s best thanks to increased depth and experience.

“They’ll lead the way for a young but immensely gifted backfield with quarterback Drew Allar taking over for Sean Clifford and running back Nicholas Singleton ready to be one of the nation’s best. If Allar can meet his expectations, the Nittany Lions could be the best team in the Big Ten.”

Penn State opens the 2023 season against West Virginia on Sept. 1. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. on NBC.

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