Penn State vs. Illinois Predictions: Lions open up Big Ten play with Top 20 clash

Penn State will finish out September with a Top 20 matchup this Saturday against 19th-ranked Illinois. The Fighting Illini have two quality wins already, defeating Kansas and Nebraska, both of which were ranked at the time.

Quarterback Luke Altmyer is a big reason for that success, completing over 70 percent of his passes so far, totaling 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. But Illinois’ defense has also impressed. Through four games, the Illini are ranked 32nd in the country in total defense and 15th nationally in scoring defense.

All-time, Penn State is 21-6 against the Fighting Illini. Two of those losses have come during James Franklin’s tenure. Of course, that includes the last time these teams played at Beaver Stadium, as Illinois totaled 357 yards rushing that day and ultimately won in overtime. With that said, the Nittany Lions got revenge last season, forcing five turnovers in Champaign for a 30-13 win.

So, how does our staff see this one playing out? Check out our predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 3-0)

Understanding how rankings, prior wins, conference play, and statistics shape perception isn’t at issue. It’s how college football and the task of judging how every game, every week largely operates. And, on Saturday night at Beaver Stadium, Penn State appears to have one of those instances of heightened competition on its hands as it gets set to meet a 4-0, No. 19-ranked Illinois team.

Perception can be deceiving, though. And, with the benefit of a deeper dive into who and what Penn State is, and who and what this Illinois team is, this one has all the makings of a mismatch. The Nittany Lions’ defense is both banged up and has shown some susceptibility that didn’t exist last season. But, Illinois does not in any manner represent the toughest or most explosive offense the program will have faced to this point in the season. Conversely, Drew Allar and the offense have shown considerable progress from last year and are continuing along that trajectory. While Illinois’ D does represent a bigger challenge than faced thus far, the hurdle is not so high as to demand an exponential improvement from the first three games.

For a Penn State team featuring dynamic playmaking on both sides of the ball, against an Illinois program that does not to the same extent, the ingredients are in place for a comfortable, largely commanding win.

Penn State: 44
Illinois: 17

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 3-0)

It’s been hard to pin down where Penn State fits in the grand scheme of things as we’re busy still shielding our eyes from the glare of the first half of the Bowling Green game. The Nittany Lions were going to get no credit for last weekend against Kent State, not that they really should, but we’ve got a serious case of brand name bias in thinking that the first MAC team that rolled through and gave Penn State trouble was anything like the second. Bowling Green has proven to be the Nittany Lions’ toughest test of the non-conference schedule and at the end of the season, it may be looked upon as a better win than some over Big Ten programs.

Rant aside, it’s now time for conference play. Illinois will roll into town on Saturday evening with a mystique much different than what Nittany Lions fans have burned into their memories from 2021.

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Altmyer has made some admirable strides since throwing four picks against the Nittany Lions last year. He’s making better decisions and the Illini are better because of it, with just three turnovers in four games. Illinois has a pair of really good wideouts in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin and the Illini will rely on each heavily in a passing game. They’ll try to run the football as well, but it’s far from the juggernaut that Nittany Lions fans are expecting.

A night game in Happy Valley is special, and with a defense in transition, the Nittany Lions offense will be under the microscope this week. They should match up well with a defense that’s coming off of a grinding win at Nebraska. Still, there should be holes for Penn State’s backs and some breathing room for Trey Wallace on the outside.

Penn State: 35
Illinois: 16

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 3-0)

The Penn State offense has been incredibly productive through three games, despite not firing on all cylinders through each contest to start the season. However, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has proven he knows how to beat this Illinois team and has more talent than he did last time.

The Penn State receivers will be challenged by the secondary, but Illinois will likely dedicate significant resources to stopping Tyler Warren and the team’s downfield passing game between the numbers. That means Wallace and others will need to step up to the plate to make this a blowout. Even if he doesn’t, Penn State should still be able to score points with its explosive running attack and diversity of weapons.

On the flip side, the game against Bowling Green showed us what can happen to a good defense if you give a quality quarterback a simple pre and post-snap read. However, the team has had time to adjust to the loss of KJ Winston and work out its communication issues. The Penn State defense will likely still play plenty of man coverage, giving Altmyer opportunities to make plays, but I think the defense will give as good as it gets.

Additionally, the Penn State defensive line is significantly better than the Illinois offensive line. It will be on Altmeyer’s shoulders to lead Illinois to the upset. He’ll make plays, but I don’t think he’ll get that done.

Penn State: 38
Illinois: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 3-0)

A year ago, Penn State intercepted Luke Altmyer four times and coasted to a 30-13 victory in Champaign. The Nittany Lions can’t count on another scattershot passing performance from Illinois this year, even if they’re able to summon up the intimidating White Out-type environment that James Franklin wants to see on Saturday night. For one thing, Altmyer has looked much more poised than he did a year ago, having tossed 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions through four games. What’s more, the Illini have already shown they’re not fazed by a hostile road venue. They played a night game at Nebraska last Friday and rallied for a 31-24 overtime victory. Altmyer completed 21 of 27 passes for 215 yards and four TDs to silence the nearly 87,000 Cornhusker fans on hand.

Penn State has got more playmakers than Nebraska on both sides of the ball, and it should win this game, provided it doesn’t beat itself with turnovers and penalties. But given the improvement that Illinois has shown in its passing game, the 18-point betting line seems awfully high, regardless of what the analytics say.

Penn State: 28
Illinois: 20

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 3-0)

Many college football observers were surprised when the spread opened Penn State -17 on Sunday. As it turns out, that number might not be high enough. By Wednesday morning, some sports books were showing the Lions as a 19-point favorite. Is it justified? Initially, I didn’t think so. But, the more I dive into Illinois’ 4-0 start, the more I think a three-touchdown or more victory for Saturday’s home side is plausible. It can be said about most games but especially this one: If Penn State does not turn the ball over, it should win handily.

The Fighting Illini have feasted on taking the ball away from their opponent and turning it into points this season. They have one of the best turnover margins in the country and that has helped them knock off a pair of previously ranked opponents in Kansas and Nebraska. If Penn State protects the ball, it will not be added to that list. And, considering its history of doing so, it’s a safe bet to think the Lions won’t have that problem and will eventually kick away to a sizable victory in front of a frenzied crowd in prime time.

Penn State: 41
Illinois: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 3-0)

Bowling Green provided a road map for how to take advantage of Penn State’s defense, carving up the middle of the field to complete 13 of 15 pass attempts between 0 and 10 yards in that game.

Sure enough, that’s also where Altmyer has found success this season, completing 17 of 23 attempts from 0-10 yards and 12 of 16 from 11-20 yards. With safety KJ Winston now out for Penn State, keep an eye on that Saturday. You know Bret Bielema and his staff will have watched that film closely.

With that said, I also believe that Penn State has the athletes on both sides of the ball that neither Kansas nor Nebraska can match. The Jayhawks also found success running the ball against Illinois, averaging 5.6 yards per rush and more than doubling what Illinois could produce (186 to 79).

Last season out in Champaign, Penn State had similar totals, rushing for 164 yards and limiting Illinois to 78. That’s where I think the Lions may be able to separate itself in this game. The Fighting Illini seem to still have some questions regarding how good their interior offensive line truly is.

I think Kansas and Nebraska blew opportunities to win those games more than Illinois truly earned it. Penn State should control the ball enough that it won’t give Illinois that opportunity Saturday night.

Penn State: 34
Illinois: 14