Penn State-Illinois Matchups: Who will have the edge on Saturday night?

By Greg Pickel

No. 9 Penn State welcomes No. 19 Illinois to Beaver Stadium on Saturday. It starts Big Ten play for the Nittany Lions. The Fighting Illini come to State College with two wins over teams that were ranked at the time they beat them. Head coach James Franklin’s team, meanwhile, is 3-0 and is a 17.5-point favorite ahead of kickoff.

“Tremendous opportunity this week to play top-10 team on the road in an environment that is one of the best in college football,” Illinois coach Bret Bielema said this week. “An offense that has a new coordinator. … There’s a lot of familiarity with their offense coordinator coming from Kansas to where he is. … Just a lot of really good growth. I think in preparation for this game, you see a lot of things, but he also carries a lot of the Penn State traditions. They’re using multiple quarterbacks. I think the offensive line from tackle to tackle is probably the best group that we’ve played. Some are a little bit new to the game, inexperienced, but very, very talented players. By far, tackle to tackle, the best group we’ve faced.”

Franklin discussed the Fighting Illini this week, as well.

“I think the biggest difference is the quarterback [Luke Altmyer],” Franklin said. “He’s got 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. I think he’s one of the more improved players right now in college football. So I think that’s kind of the big story. A young man that transferred, I think, from Mississippi, if I remember correctly.”

Here’s a look at the matchups.

When Penn State has the ball

Franklin went out of his way Monday to praise his receivers when asked. He believes they are playing better than they are getting credit for. Whether or not he’s right will largely be based on how they perform against a very talented Illinois secondary.

“I think their secondary is really going to be a challenge for us,” Franklin said. “I think our wide receivers have taken a really nice step and made some really good strides since last season, but we will be challenged. We will be challenged in the secondary this week. These guys do a really good job. They play a decent amount of man coverage, and they’re extremely competitive.”

Cornerback Xavier Scott leads the way. He has three interceptions, including a pick six, which leads the Big Ten. Cornerback Torrie Cox Jr. and safety Miles Scott have combined for two interceptions. Like many opponents before it, Illinois will try to force Penn State to beat it through the air and then cause problems when it tries to do so if it can stop the Lions’ rushing attack. The Fighting Illini defense is middle of the pack statistically in the conference against both the run and the pass but is among its best with just 12.5 points allowed per game over a 4-0 start. It will face one of its stiffest tests yet on Saturday, though.

Illinois is among the nation’s leaders in turnovers with 10. It’s one of the reasons they are unbeaten so far this season. This game will not simply come down to Penn State protecting the ball. But, the Fighting Illini defense has proven beatable when that is the case. They are opportunistic, though, and it won’t take much for the game to swing on a fumble or interception. The Lions must be ball-secure for all four quarters. If they are, the rushing attack and the Drew Allar to Tyler Warren connection should prove to be too much in the end.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has a bit of a 2023 Drew Allar profile through four games: He has yet to throw an interception compared to 10 touchdown tosses. He’s done that by being efficient — he’s completing 71.4 percent of his passes — and risk averse. Penn State, if it can get its pass rush going early and get some help from the offense, might be able to take advantage of that. Saturday’s visitors want to run more than they throw. But, if they find themselves behind early, that won’t be as easy to do, and it could put Altmyer into compromising down and distances he does not want to be in. Receiver Pat Bryant is the go-to receiver. He leads the Big Ten with six touchdowns on just 20 receptions. Zakhari Franklin has 20 receptions but no touchdowns to date. And, Kaden Feagin leads the way out of the backfield.

The Illinois offense should not scare Penn State. It does not do anything spectacularly besides protecting the football. Like the Lions, it has just three turnovers on the season, which is one of the best marks in the country. If Tom Allen’s side is gap sound and tackles well, it should not run into many issues with getting off the field. Eliminating pre-snap penalties will help in that regard, too. All told, if Illinois is going to win, it’s going to have to do so on the ground. And, we think that is more than OK for Penn State.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Illinois is fine in the field goal kicking department. David Olano is 7 of 8 on the year.

–The Fighting Illini likely have the edge in the punt return department. Receiver Hank Beatty is averaging 15.57 yards over seven returns this year. That is No. 20 in the country.

–We said it above, but Penn State must be at its best when it comes to both tackling and pre-snap penalties.

Final word

Many were surprised when Penn State opened as a 17.5-point favorite. But, we think it’s justified. Saying Illinois’ four wins so far are the product of smoke and mirrors is unfair. But, Kansas and Nebraska did as much to beat themselves as the Fighting Illini did to beat them. If Penn State limits its mistakes and doesn’t turn the ball over, it’s hard to see Saturday’s home side leaving the stadium without a win and cover.