Penn State vs. Illinois Predictions: What should fans expect from the first road test of 2023?

There was no shortage of pressure on Penn State quarterback Drew Allar entering the 2023 season. Through two games, however, passed both tests with ease, ranking among the nation’s Top 15 quarterbacks according to Pro Football Focus. Yes, it’s early, but that won’t keep fans from dreaming.

Now, for his third test, Allar and the Nittany Lions will hit the road for the first time this weekend when they face a 1-1 Illinois team that’s allowed 955 yards of total offense against Kansas and Toledo the first two weeks of the season.

Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State is 16-6 against the Illini, but all fans and the team will likely be thinking about this week is the 20-18 loss in 2021 that went to nine overtimes before being decided. Fans are hoping for something more like the last time Penn State traveled to Champaign, which resulted in a 63-24 win for the Nittany Lions in 2018.

Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 2-0)

I wasn’t ready before. Now, I am. And Delaware really had nothing to do with it. After seeing Drew Allar work in two games, understanding the variety of avenues Penn State has to winning games this season, and knowing that some of the explosive plays expected of the running backs and tight ends have yet to happen, I’m ready to jump aboard the points train.

Against an Illinois team that has allowed bundles of yards and points through the first two games this season, the sentiment is hammered home further. The only counter is the notion that Illinois will rightfully want to shorten the game by keeping the clock moving, potentially taking opportunities away from this Penn State offense in the process.

A Penn State defense that has been very good, most of the time, is still likely to have a few kinks to work out. But, between the Nittany Lions’ protection of the football, and turnover creation defensively, and the Illini’s issues with coughing it up, there are plenty of paths toward cracking 40 in this one.

Penn State: 42
Illinois: 17

Sean Fitz (Season: 2-0)

I circled this one early as a legitimate September test for Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions. That’s not because I thought Illinois would be anything special this year, but because sometimes you have to play the situation. On the road with the famed 11 a.m. Central kick against an experienced head coach like Bret Bielema isn’t exactly the most inviting situation out there. Penn State should have the talent advantage pretty comfortably, but sometimes things get tricky. Even if the first half is a slow one.

Having said that, Illinois, who wasn’t supposed to be great this year after losing a bunch of talent to the NFL, may actually be behind schedule. The Fighting Illini needed a big second half against a solid Toledo team in week one to secure a win. Kansas bullied them last Friday in a game that wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. The Illinois run game, which holds a special place in many Penn State fans’ hearts from two years ago, hasn’t gotten going. Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmeyer has been up and down through two weeks and he has a lot on his shoulders. I like Penn State to put some pressure on him and take this one comfortably. 

Penn State: 38
Illinois: 14

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 2-0)

This game against Illinois is symbolic in so many ways for the Penn State football program. Fans still bear the scars of the 20-18, nine overtime loss to the Illini in 2021. While the program is in a vastly different place this year, the 357-yard rushing performance began a drum beat that hasn’t stopped the fanbase. They want revenge for that game, and they likely want Penn State to do so by shutting down the running game for Bret Bielema’s squad with size and strength.

While Penn State wants to give them that shutdown performance, the defensive plan remains the same. Penn State will try to use its athleticism and movement to gum up the Illinois running scheme and create enough negative plays that the passing attack has to lead the way.

More importantly, Penn State’s receivers have a different opportunity this week. Teams have threatened the offense with Cover 0 blitzes and press-man coverage for two years now. The question remains: can KeAndre Lambert-Smith and company make teams pay for those decisions? Illinois will test this group, and starter Drew Allar with tight-window throws. At least, that’s been what the Illini defense has done so far this year.

Penn State overcomes at least one of those stigmas on Saturday and gets a win on the road. My money is on Drew Allar making timely plays to get the Nittany Lions out in front and making Illinois abandon the run.

Penn State: 35
Illinois: 20

Matt Herb (Season: 2-0)

Illinois has been a disappointment so far, but the arrival of the Big Ten season brings the opportunity for a fresh start. An upset win over a top-10 opponent would get the Illini turned around in a hurry. To do that, though, they’re going to have to find a way to stop Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, among others. Illinois, which led the FBS in scoring defense last year at 12.8 points per game, is currently last in the Big Ten in that department with an average of 31 points allowed in games against Toledo and Kansas. That’s not going to continue, but as long as Penn State doesn’t beat itself with penalties and turnovers amid what is sure to be an amped-up road environment, it should keep rolling in Champaign.

Penn State: 34
Illinois: 17

Greg Pickel (Season: 2-0)

Penn State fans saw this as the biggest trap game of the year during the spring and summer. After two weeks of play, however, fear over Illinois has greatly diminished. The Fighting Illini lost a lot. And, at least so far, the replacements are not at the same level of some of the stars from the 2022 team. Neither team is even remotely close to what they were back in 2021 during the nine overtime debacle, either.

There are still some question marks, of course. Penn State is going on the road for the first time, and it does so in the central time zone, so kickoff will be an hour earlier than the players are used to. Illinois has a running quarterback, a talented playmaker in receiver Isaiah Williams, and a couple of strong defenders, led by defensive lineman Jer’Zha Newton. However, the skill and talent advantages are on Penn State’s side in all three phases. The Lions may have some hiccups early, but this will end up being a comfortable road victory.

Penn State: 38
Illinois: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 2-0)

When I look at what these two teams have done through two games, it’s really hard for me to see Penn State not winning this and likely even covering the spread. I watched the majority of the game against Kansas last Friday and the first thing that really popped out was how much the Illini missed the three defensive backs who were drafted this past April. Devon Witherspoon, Jartavius Martin and Sydney Brown were all Top 70 picks. It’s been over a decade since the Fighting Illini have produced that kind of talent.

But that’s just the start of it. The Illini defensive line and linebackers have also struggled to get off blocks through the first two games. Last week, the Jayhawks totaled 262 yards rushing and that wasn’t because Jalon Daniels was out there making plays with his feet. Kansas’ top running backs averaged 9.9 (!!!) yards per carry last week.

I think quarterback Luke Altmyer will make some plays for the Illini, but Penn State should surpass 40 points in this one. If Kansas can put up 500-plus yards of offense against Illinois, I expect the Lions to do the same. The over/under of 48.5 seems too low to me. Same with the spread.

Penn State: 48
Illinois: 17