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Penn State-Illinois predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•09/16/23•

GregPickel

PSU v. Delaware Football (Photo by Steve Manuel)
The Penn State Nittany Lion mascot (Credit: Steve Manuel | Blue White Illustrated)

No. 7 Penn State opens Big Ten play today when it battles unranked and 1-1 Illinois at Noon ET on FOX. The Nittany Lions are a double-digit favorite for the third time in as many weeks. This time around, head coach James Franklin’s side is a 14.5-point favorite. The betting total is 48.5 points.

Will the home or away team over? And is the game going over or under the listed points total? Below, find out out national writers, beat reporters, the BWI staff, and computer data systems are picking Penn State-Illinois.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Illinois

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-14 Penn State victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win but not cover with a final score of 26-15.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Lions winning by 14.5, which is a Lions cover.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions an 86.4 percent chance to win and suggests the winning margin will be by at least 17 points.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 5.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and an under call with a total points projection of just 41.

Lions-Fighting Illini picks from a national perspective

College Football News projects a Nittany Lions victory by a 38-17 count.

“Toledo moved the ball too easily on the Illinis, and Kansas did just about anything it wanted in its win last week,” Pete Fiutak writes. “Penn State will have a few speed bumps to drive over, but the balance will be there, the passing game will be good again, and it’ll continue to be a fight for the Illini to get the season going.”

Bill Bender of the Sporting News picks the Lions to win and cover, too. He has it 35-17.

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon has it Penn State 34, Illinois 17.

“Heading into the season, this Big Ten matchup looked like a sneaky obstacle for Penn State,” Kenyon writes. “Seeing the Illini give up 6.3 yards per play in two games lessens the concern of an upset, though.”

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic picked a 34-10 Penn State win.

“Illinois’ blowout loss to Kansas did not inspire much confidence it can hang with the Nittany Lions, though this will be Drew Allar’s first road start,” Mandel writes. “With that in mind, expect a heavy dose of Penn State RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen against an Illini defense that thus far does not resemble former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters’ stingy 2022 unit.”

Penn State-Illinois beat writer picks

At PennLive, its coverage team all picked Penn State to win and cover. So, too, did guest picker Scott Richey of The Champaign News-Gazette.

“The game plan in Champaign this week? Fix a defense that’s become penalty prone — especially post-snap — and has seen fundamental missteps and miscues turn last year’s stingiest group in the country into one that’s now allowing 31 points and 477.5 yards per game,” Richey writes before predicting a 38-178 Lions win. “That’s a big ask the same week the No. 7 team in the country comes to town.”

Three writers for The Daily Collegian picked a Penn State double-digit win and cover across the board, too. Sports Illustrated’s pair of pickers did the same.

“Drew Allar will answer the bell once again in his first road start in the conference, taking care of the ball even if he doesn’t light up the stat sheet,” Max Ralph writes. “The ground game will do the heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense will have a field day on Illinois’ struggling offensive line. Just beware of Luke Altmyer’s legs, which could contribute to a few unwanted big plays.”

How the BWI staff picked the game

Nate Bauer: PSU 42, ILL 17
Sean Fitz: PSU 38, ILL 14
Thomas Frank Car: PSU 35, ILL 20
Matt Herb: PSU 34, ILL 17
Greg Pickel: PSU 38, ILL 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU 48, ILL 17

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