Penn State-Illinois predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — Penn State returns to Beaver Stadium today to open Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 and aim to knock off 4-0 Illinois during a top-20 matchup in primetime on NBC.

As of Saturday morning, PSU is a 17.5-point favorite, and the betting over/under total sits at 47.5. Head coach James Franklin’s team is 28-2 straight up when a double-digit favorite and 20-9-1 against the number over its last 30 games. Will it cover this week? And will the total go over or under? Our picks roundup takes a closer look.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Illinois

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-15 win for Penn State. That is pretty much right on both the spread and total and you could find the side you prefer at different sports books.

Sportsline sees a 36-15 win on the horizon for the Lions. That’s a pick for a PSU cover and a convincing over.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 36-14 Lions win. It’s another prediction for a home team cover and the over.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 24-point margin of victory for Penn State and 54 total points. That would equal an over and Nittany Lion cover.

Lions-Fighting Illini picks from a national perspective

The six-member picks team at USA Today all call for a Penn State win with no opinion on the spread. At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon calls for a Nittany Lion victory, but Illinois covers by a final score of 27-19. Bill Bender of the Sporting News feels the same way. He calls for a 31-14 Penn State win.

“It’s homecoming for Penn State, and the last time these teams met in Happy Valley the Illini won 20-18 in nine overtimes,” Bender writes. “Illinois has improved around quarterback Luke Altmyer – who leads the Big Ten with 10 TDs and no interceptions. Drew Allar has the highest passer rating among Big Ten quarterbacks at 218.3. Which team can prevent those chunk plays in the passing game? Illinois is living off a +7 turnover margin. Can they slow down Penn State’s rushing attack – which averages 255 yards per game? That is the key. Be wary of a late cover from the Nittany Lions if you take the Illini.”

Pete Fiutak at College Football News picks the under and an Illinois cover when he writes that PSU will win 31-16.

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Illinois

At PennLive, its four-member picks team plus guest picker Bob Asmussen of The News-Gazette all pick Penn State to win, but only one of them thinks the Nittany Lions will cover.

“The Illini are riding high after thwarting Nebraska in Lincoln last Friday, and they have their sights set on another upset,” Johnny McGonigal writes. “But I don’t see it happening. Between Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Tyler Warren, Penn State has too much talent on offense. And the defense, feeding off the environment, will play inspired.”

For Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich expects that the over will cash easily but that Penn State will not have a simple path to victory.

“While expecting Allar and Kotelnicki to take a bow after this one, the defense raises some yellow flags,” Wogenrich writes. “Injuries have been disruptive to the group’s lineup and depth, prompting some position shifts and freshmen call-ups. The flags don’t rise to red yet, primarily because its top players (Reed, tackle Zane Durant, end Abdul Carter, linebacker Kobe King) are playing high-level football. But could Illinois and Altmyer exploit a few weak spots? Expect points in this game.”

Seth Engle calls for a 31-17 Nittany Lions win at Statecollege.com. Audrey Snyder has it PSU 30, ILL 13 at The Athletic. And, Frank Bodani calls for a 33-15 triumph for the Nittany Lions at the York Daily Record.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Fighting Illini

Nate Bauer: Penn State: 44, Illinois: 17
Sean Fitz: PSU: 35, Illinois: 16
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State: 38, Illinois: 17
Matt Herb: PSU: 28, Illinois: 20
Greg Pickel: Penn State: 41, Illinois: 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 34, Illinois: 14